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Tonight’s CPI data is not expected to be too bad, at least in theory.
First, oil prices have fallen: from May to June, the oil price has continued to decline for two consecutive months. See Figure 1.
Second, consumer confidence has declined: the June consumer confidence index was 91.2%, the lowest since March. See Figure 2.
Even the CPI forecast data is almost all lower than the prior value. The combined forecast value for the CPI month-over-month rate is even negative. See Figure 3