TVBee

The Japanese yen fell, but the renminbi suddenly surged, breaking below 6.7.
For a moment, it was hard to tell whether it was the yen or the renminbi that had raised interest rates...

Great, the Federal Reserve has successfully demonstrated its independence and continued to disrupt market expectations with a slightly hawkish dot plot—as of the end of next year, it may raise rates 1–2 times
┈➤12:0 rate-hike decision
None of the 12 Fed officials showed any concern about Treasury yields, and none paid attention to Trump’s call for rate cuts…
Of course, officials are still concerned about the impact of rate hikes on the economy and employment. So the dot plot should be considered slightly hawkish, but not too hawkish.
┈➤Slightly hawkish dot plot
The dot plot has only 18 dots. W

Don’t overthink it! Even if the Crypto Clarity Act temporarily fails to pass tonight, BTC won’t see a sustained sharp decline.
It’s simple: BTC’s recent rise was not originally driven by the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act.
On the contrary, since July, @Polymarket’s predicted probability of its passage has been declining almost continuously.
If BTC didn’t rise on expectations that the bill would pass, how could it continue falling just because the bill temporarily failed to pass?
Interest rate hikes and the dot plot have a greater impact because they affect liquidity.

The calls for the CLARITY Act seem to be getting a bit louder tonight. I’ll buy some Yes and have a little fun.
➘Although: Republicans may not be genuinely pushing for the CLARITY Act and could be doing so to win the votes of crypto voters.
➚However: Democrats do not necessarily have to oppose crypto voters.
➘Although: The two parties disagree over the CLARITY Act.
➚However: The SEC and CFTC are both technically providing support and assistance for the CLARITY Act.
➘Although: Once the House is “back in business,” only 4 days will remain.
➚However: If the Senate can pass the CLARITY Act, Trump

Whether to raise interest rates is no longer a mathematical issue, or even an economic one—it is a political issue.
Inflation and interest rates are not simply correlated. Inflation caused by oil prices is driven by rising costs on the supply side.
Raising interest rates cannot solve the problem. At most, it can suppress expectations of wage increases and prevent labor costs from rising, but high interest rates also increase companies’ financing costs.
All that can be said is that raising interest rates in response to inflation is directionally “correct.”
Especially during the midterm election

Here’s a pubic-hair theory:
Trump or the Republican Party may not necessarily be actively pushing the Crypto Clarity Act.
Could they simply be trying, during the midterm elections, to make American crypto voters and stakeholders resent or even hate the Democratic Party?

BTC gives me the feeling that it doesn’t want to fall, but it also doesn’t dare to rise.
USDT’s market cap has been fluctuating within a range since August 27.
There have been no capital inflows, but for now there have also been no obvious outflows. (There has been a slight outflow, and USDT has shown a slight tendency toward a negative premium, but it is not significant.)
Friday’s CPI data may come in line with or even below expectations, but there may still be no clear downward trend, and it may not necessarily provide a definitive answer on whether rates will be raised.
Brother Feng does no

Recently, you could say it has been a major on-chain battle
Old guard: Solana
Mid-tier: BSC
Newcomer: Robinhood
◆The old-guard chain recorded total DEX trading volume of $13.935 billion over the past 7 days, with no particularly new narratives or MEMEs.
◆The mid-tier chain recorded total DEX trading volume of $8.254 billion over the past 7 days, characterized by breakout MEME Niu Lai.
◆The newcomer chain recorded total DEX trading volume of $10.424 billion over the past 7 days. Apart from the platform token $PONS , it seems to have no particularly breakout MEMEs, but its overall scale and infl

Recently, it can be said that there has been an on-chain battle royale.
Old-timer: Solana
Mid-timer: BSC
Newcomer: Robinhood
◆Over the past 7 days, the old-timer chain’s total DEX trading volume was $13.935 billion, with no particularly new narratives or MEMEs.
◆Over the past 7 days, the mid-timer chain’s total DEX trading volume was $8.254 billion, featuring a viral MEME, Bull Is Coming.
◆Over the past 7 days, the newcomer chain’s total DEX trading volume was $10.424 billion. Aside from the platform token $PONS , there does not seem to be any particularly viral MEME, but its overall scale and

Strange! Why is BTC falling? The ADP private payrolls data has declined for three consecutive months and has come in below expectations for three consecutive months.
The ADP private payrolls data was weaker than expected: the forecast was 48k, while the actual figure was 38k.
The ADP private payrolls data has declined for three consecutive months and has come in below expectations for three consecutive months.
The ADP private payrolls data is compiled by the market data company ADP, not the Labor Department and not an agency under Trump, so its credibility is still fairly high.
Moreover, the t

Are crypto people too optimistic? Are crypto people too smart? Or are crypto people too stupid?
CME interest rate futures show a 57.5% probability of a September rate hike, but it is only 51% on @Polymarket.
What tools can crawl the data for these two probabilities? Feels like there’s a trading opportunity here.
Brother Feng bought $10 on September interest rates remaining unchanged based on his own analysis! I’ve lost too much before, so I’ll use what’s left for a little fun.