22 Fear but underlying data points to a different outcome Let’s recap the setup for today, it’s a mixed bag under the hood with some developments worth breaking down in more depth. The big picture from macro point of view - Waller has set the tone for Tuesday's CPI release stating hot inflation will lead to a near-term rate hike. Such comments will surely keep eyes firmly planted on data release, instead of trading at present.

In conjunction, Trump reintroduces blockade of Iranian vessels in Hormuz and will levy a 20% fee on transit cargo, which will cause the energy markets to react with every headline in Hormuz region.

In contrast, attention worthy, mentions of BTC & ETH in X have fallen to a 12 month low. Retail interest in cryptocurrencies have retreated to 2020 levels (Retail haschecked out). Currently, people are not talking about crypto and the smart money are quietly accumulating and as such, Morgan Stanley have acquired close to 1,000 Bitcoins in the last two weeks, their holdings increased to over 5,700 BTC (institutions do not buy what people think). While multiple bearish catalysts such as Hormuz tensions, hawkish stance by the fed and weak sentiment this week continue to mount,BTC lost merely around 2%.

Hence,Some institutions interpret this strength as a possible bottom and are not concerned of break down, albeit, still in cautiously optimistic phase not yet confirmed.

The current charts for BTC at 62,514.5 ( -1.75%), ETH at 1,785.59 ( -1.55%), SOL at 75.36 ( -1.89%). Gold maintains price near 4,002.74 and silver near 57.222 Nasdaq and KR200 up, and HK50 is down slightly. Panic Index: 22 - "Extreme Fear", Long-Short ratio: 55% Longglobally,(a bit of conflicting indication as sentiments express fear but position reflects confidence).

Ultimately, it’s a ‘retail exited, institutions stayed put’ setup. Short-term losses cannot be denied, with current CPI data and Hormuz crisis in play,However,extreme fear,institutions bought in and retail silence could be favorable setup for crypto and not worst possible scenario. Are you of the opinion this could be the early bottoming signals, or expect further downside ahead of CPI announcement?

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