Right now, the overall higher highs and lower lows of BTC are all decreasing. It’s clear that on the hourly timeframe there’s a bearish trend. For this bearish trend to continue, it must break below the support at 61266. Only if 61266 is broken will the downside move be expanded; if it doesn’t break 61266, there’s nowhere for it to go.

After BTC broke below the support at 63620, it went through a natural bearish pullback and then a natural rebound. The natural rebound couldn’t successfully get back above 63620 at the point marked by the yellow arrow above. Instead, it started two tests of the previous low marked by the yellow arrow below. Those two tests of the previous low also failed and created a new low. After that new low, it went through another natural rebound, but this time the natural rebound couldn’t even pass the high of the first rebound marked by the yellow arrow. Then it came again for two tests of the previous low, but it still didn’t hold, leading to a new low at 61802. The two tests of 61802 shown by the red arrows below are currently holding. Let’s see whether this level can form a double bottom. To play out a double-bottom走势, it needs to break and hold above the 62550 resistance; only then is the double bottom considered valid—otherwise it’s useless.

The positions circled in the red box inside the triangle have already broken the W-bottom neckline level, and the small W bottom is formed. For the moment, we just need to see whether these two bullish patterns—the small W bottom and the double bottom—can drive BTC to have a rebound. To break out, it must break above and hold over 62550. You must break 62550 in order to extend the rebound and challenge the 63620 resistance. If it breaks the 63620 resistance, the segment of price action circled in the red box will create a higher high, and this downswing will then end—only then can it continue the rebound. If it can’t even get past 62550, for now it can only range and consolidate around the triangle. Once the triangle is broken to the downside at 61266, it’s coming.

BTC breaks out with volume above 62550, then chase longs on the right side; on the pullback, short with half position at 63620 on the left side, stop-loss at the previous high. Place a proper stop-loss.

BTC hourly timeframe: once it breaks above and holds 62550, look for 63620-64700. If it can’t get over 62550, it’s useless.

4-hour timeframe: break below 61955, look for 61271-60093.

Upward resistance: 62550-63620-64700
Downward support: 61905-61271-60093

$ETH Idea:
ETH: Buy on the right side chasing after a volume breakout above 1789, then close and return to stop-loss.
At 1776: volume breaks down to the right side and chase a short; set a proper stop-loss.
Pull back to 1724 to confirm support is valid, add one more long.
If it breaks below 1700, stop-loss! #特朗普呼吁尽快通过Clarity法案