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Federal Reserve research: AI has halved the growth rate of US programmers, with about 500k fewer jobs over three years

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AIMPACT message: On April 25 (UTC+8), a study by the Federal Reserve Board found that after ChatGPT was released, growth in U.S. programming-related jobs slowed significantly. Before November 2022, the year-over-year growth rate for programming jobs was close to 5%, but afterward the pace dropped sharply. After adjusting for industry size, the number of programmers employed still fell by about 3 percentage points per year, with a three-year cumulative gap of about 500k jobs. Programmers account for about 3.7% of the U.S. workforce, and about 40% work for IT services providers, where the slowdown was most evident. The study found no clear wage decline; the impact mainly showed up in employment numbers. The gap emerged in mid-2024, about 1.5 years after ChatGPT’s release. The research noted that over 98% of the measurement methods classify programmers as the occupation most affected by AI. A study by Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University found that AI agent development focuses almost entirely on programming tasks.
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