July 14 trading plan:

Yesterday, ETH surged up then pulled back, with the lower region trapped in a range-bound consolidation.

On the fundamentals, on Monday, Trump announced the restoration of the U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian ports, hoping to force Iran to reopen the strait; meanwhile, the U.S. military has carried out airstrikes on Iran for the third consecutive night. An Iranian diplomat had tried to seek some kind of understanding on the strait-management issue, but those efforts were undermined by hardliners. The Iranian diplomat has also told the mediators that they hope to find a compromise solution, but in reality, they are unable to do so. Platforms controlled by the hardliners are also applying pressure in parallel. IRIB, Iran’s national TV station long controlled by the hardliners, suddenly cut off its signal when the chief negotiating representative attempted to hold talks with the U.S. The negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have fallen into a stalemate. Meanwhile, renewed mutual attacks between Yemen and Saudi Arabia have broken the calm that had lasted since the 2022 ceasefire, and this also increases the risk facing another key maritime corridor.

On the technical side, after the 4-hour chart tested the downside against strong support at 1757 yesterday, it pulled back again. At the same time, it closed above support at 1773, so overall it still favors bullish consolidation, with a chance to form a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. Only after the 4-hour chart fully breaks below 1757 would there be scope to continue moving down to test the main support area of the double top at 1713. On the 1-hour chart, the current minor bearish pullback from the 1845 high has temporarily come to an end; it is now moving sideways to adjust and choose a direction. Near-term resistance is 1798.

For today’s trading, at present we are waiting for a directional choice after the 1798-1757 range adjustment. While the direction is unclear, temporarily stand by and wait.