Good morning, everyone.

There were plenty of market updates last night, but the biggest impact still comes from two things: the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and the U.S. CPI data to be released tonight. These two factors basically determine the market’s risk appetite over the next few days.

First, the Middle East situation:
Over the past 24 hours, the U.S.-Iran situation has heated up again. The U.S. announced it is strengthening the maritime blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, while Iran said it carried out strikes on foreign oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating tensions across the Middle East. At the same time, the U.S. military has carried out military strikes against Iran for the third consecutive night, and the conflict between Yemen’s Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia continues to intensify.

Driven by safe-haven sentiment, international oil prices surged sharply. Brent crude has once again moved back above around $80, and capital has started flowing into safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, global risk assets are under overall pressure, and technology and semiconductor stocks have also seen clear pullbacks.

However, Trump still sticks to his usual style: while continuing to apply pressure, he also released a signal that there is “still an opportunity to negotiate.” So for now, the biggest variable in the market is whether both sides will continue to escalate the conflict afterward.

On the other hand, tonight’s U.S. June CPI data is also worth close attention.

The market has already started pricing in rate-hike expectations ahead of time. The Federal Reserve governor Waller’s latest remarks are relatively hawkish, saying that if core CPI again comes in above expectations, the Fed will consider further tightening monetary policy. He also noted that inflation pressure from energy prices, tariffs, and AI investment still remains, and he reminded the market to watch out for the risks brought by potentially overvalued AI assets.

So, it can be said that if tonight’s CPI comes in above expectations, the market may face renewed pressure in the short term; if it comes in below expectations, it could help ease concerns about further rate hikes.

In terms of fund flows, over the latest trading day, crypto ETFs as a whole continued to see net outflows of about $258 million, indicating institutional capital remains relatively cautious in the near term. However, BTC-related ETFs still saw some inflows, suggesting there is still demand for Bitcoin allocation, even though overall risk appetite has declined. Over the past five trading days, the cumulative flow has still been net outflows, and institutions currently focus more on controlling risk.

Now looking at the chart:
Overall, the trend hasn’t deteriorated significantly; it still maintains a range-bound consolidation structure and there hasn’t been panic selling. From a technical perspective, the broader market in the short term seems more like it’s waiting for news to land—especially before tonight’s CPI release, when market watch-and-wait sentiment is relatively strong.

Therefore, I personally think today during the day will still mainly be sideways consolidation. I don’t recommend chasing gains blindly, and it will be more稳妥 to wait patiently for directional selection after the data is released.

Key levels to watch:
BTC: Watch support around 61,000. As long as it holds, the overall structure remains healthy.

ETH: Price action is relatively stronger than the broader market; focus on support around 1,700.

SOL: Watch support around 72.5. As long as there’s no breakdown on increased volume, the overall problem isn’t big.

Overall, today’s biggest focus is whether the U.S.-Iran situation continues to escalate and tonight’s U.S. CPI data. Until the news is fully digested, controlling position size and waiting patiently matters more than frequent trading. The market hasn’t fully turned weaker yet, but short-term volatility is expected to increase noticeably—so just make sure risk control is in place.
$SOL ‌$ETH ‌$BTC ‌