SpaceX shares drop close to the IPO offering price: Can Starlink and the space economy support a trillion-dollar valuation after a 38% plunge?

On July 14, 2026, Beijing time, SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell for the second consecutive trading day, closing at $139.14, down 4.24% on the day. The intraday low touched $137.68, only about 2% below the $135 IPO issue price. In after-hours trading, the stock price fell further to $137.87. Since listing on Nasdaq on June 12, SpaceX’s stock performance has been like a roller coaster—after only four trading days post-IPO, it surged to a closing all-time high of $225.64. Since then, within 17 trading days, 11 days have recorded declines. From the peak, the cumulative drop is already more than 38%.

The continued pullback in the stock price not only directly hit SpaceX’s market valuation, but also deeply affected the personal wealth of founder Elon Musk. According to Forbes’ real-time billionaires list data, Musk’s net worth fell to $879.3 billion on July 14, slipping below the $900 billion mark; this round of adjustment wiped out $37.9 billion of his wealth. Even so, Musk remains the world’s No. 1 richest person, ahead of Google cofounder Larry Page ($29.01 billion) and Sergey Brin ($26.76 billion). Musk holds about 4.8 billion shares and 350 million options of SpaceX, and also owns about 700 million shares of Tesla. His wealth peak occurred on June 16, reaching $145 billion.

SpaceX’s violent stock price fluctuations are essentially a concentrated repricing by the market of the valuation logic for this commercial aerospace giant. At the time of the IPO, the market assigned SpaceX a target valuation as high as $1.77 trillion to $2 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. However, when the IPO hype faded, the pressure from early investors to take profits was released, and the financial reality of the company’s massive losses came into view, the market began to examine more calmly a question: on what commercial foundation is SpaceX’s long-term value actually built?

The triple logic behind the pullback: profit-taking, valuation digestion, and float structure

SpaceX’s stock price fell from the $225 peak to around $140, and this was not caused by a single factor, but by the combined effect of multiple forces.

The first logic is typical profit-taking after the IPO. SpaceX’s listing was one of the most closely watched events in the 2026 global capital markets. After the underwriters exercised the green shoe mechanism, IPO fundraising came close to $86 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing record. On the first day of trading, the opening price was $150; over the next two trading days, the stock soared by more than 40%, once pushing the company’s market value beyond Amazon and Microsoft. Such a rapid rally inevitably attracts large amounts of short-term capital, and early investors choose to exit after taking profits when sitting on huge paper gains—this is normal market behavior after any high-attention IPO.

The second logic is that an overvalued stock needs stronger performance verification. SpaceX listed at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, corresponding to a price-to-sales multiple of 51.4x based on the 2026 baseline revenue forecast of $38.9 billion. This multiple implies extremely optimistic expectations for SpaceX’s future growth—not only continuous rapid expansion of Starlink, but also full execution across business lines such as rocket launches, government contracts, and space infrastructure. When the stock was at $225, the market’s pricing of the “story” was already solid and even excessive; when the stock fell back to $140, the market was effectively waiting for the “numbers” to prove whether the story is real. SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, and posted another $4.28 billion loss in 1Q 2026. Massive losses by themselves do not necessarily constitute a bearish reason—losses during the expansion stage are common for high-growth tech companies—but they do raise the bar for the market’s scrutiny of the path to subsequent profitability.

The third logic is that the float structure amplifies volatility. In this IPO, only 4.3% of the tradable shares were released to the public, and Musk’s personal ownership ratio is as high as 49%. With the amount of shares freely tradable by the market extremely scarce, any directional capital flow is amplified—when rising, buy orders concentrate and push up the stock price; when falling, sell orders concentrate and accelerate the decline. In addition, veteran investor George Noble recently warned that over the coming months, SpaceX will face a wave of selling caused by insiders’ share unlocks; his personal target price for SpaceX is only $30 per share. Although this extreme bearish view lacks consensus among major mainstream institutions on Wall Street, the unlock pressure is indeed a supply-side variable that needs attention in the short term.

Why does Wall Street still look optimistic? From “rocket company” to “infrastructure platform” valuation jump

Despite the ongoing stock pullback, mainstream institutions on Wall Street remain fairly optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects. According to FactSet data, analysts’ average target price is $236, with Arete Research at $401, Morgan Stanley at $300, and Goldman Sachs at $205. Bank of America initiated coverage of SpaceX last week for a “Buy” rating with a $235 target price. Raymond James even set a target of $800, implying a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.

These target prices are not predictions of the stock in the short term, but rather a redefinition of what SpaceX’s business really is.

Starlink is becoming the core growth engine. As of June 5, 2026, Starlink had about 12 million subscribers, with average revenue per user of about $66 from enterprise and consumer users. Adjusted EBITDA for Starlink’s segment reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in 1Q 2026. The satellite broadband business has entered a stage of recurring revenue generation and meaningful cash flow production. Some analysts estimate that if Starlink’s asset return ratio reaches about 60% of that of comparable satellite enterprises, the valuation for this business segment could be about $60 billion. Starlink is transforming SpaceX from a “rocket launch company” into a “space internet infrastructure operator”—the latter’s valuation logic is closer to platform-type tech companies than to traditional aerospace manufacturing firms.

The commercialization advantages of rocket launches build a wide moat. Before the Falcon 9 appeared, launch costs were about $10,000 to $20,000 per kilogram; Falcon 9 reduced this to about $2,000, and Falcon Heavy to about $1,000. If Starship achieves full reusability, costs could further fall to $50 to $100 per kilogram. Bank of America analyst Epstein described this cost drop as a “highway to the stars,” drawing an analogy to how railroads reshaped the U.S. West back then. The exponential decline in launch costs not only reinforces SpaceX’s market-share advantage in commercial launches, but also opens windows of economic feasibility for more distant commercial scenarios such as space data centers and space manufacturing.

The AI era is creating new demand for space infrastructure. In an interview, Epstein said that space data centers are not “giant GPU clusters floating in space,” but “distributed orbital computing.” As a professionally trained space and aerospace engineer, he emphasized that this concept is not impossible from an engineering standpoint—Starlink already has more than 10,000 interconnected satellites forming a “laser internet in space,” despite skeptics having argued it could not be done. Cooling and power supply are “only engineering problems,” and “this is a very excellent engineering company.” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives similarly believes SpaceX “has good conditions to become a major hyperscale service provider in terms of connectivity, rocket launches, and AI infrastructure.”

Why are SpaceX and Tesla under pressure at the same time?

On July 14, Tesla’s stock price also fell by 3.19% to close at $394.76. The double weakness in SpaceX and Tesla reflects not a deterioration in the fundamentals of each company, but changes in the broader macro market environment.

Since 2Q 2026, the Fed’s hawkish expectations have been continuously weighing on high-valuation growth stocks. In a macro environment with interest rates staying high, market preferences have shifted from “buying future growth” to “paying more attention to profit delivery.” Growth assets in long-term sectors such as AI, aerospace, and new energy are facing significantly increased systemic pressure at the valuation level. As a company that has not yet achieved annual profitability but already has a valuation in the trillion-dollar range, SpaceX naturally becomes one of the most affected targets in this style rotation.

In addition, there is a kind of “Musk discount” linkage effect between SpaceX and Tesla—when the market has doubts about one part of Musk’s business empire, that sentiment often spills over to other related companies. Although the two companies are independent at the business level, investors tend to price “Musk risk” as a package.

Catalysts to watch in the future

Starlink’s commercialization progress is the most critical variable in the short term. User growth pace, signing of enterprise contracts, and whether Starlink launches an independent IPO will directly affect the market’s repricing of the value of SpaceX’s core business.

Continued breakthroughs in the rocket launch business are also important. The 13th flight test of Starship is scheduled for July 16. Although Epstein does not expect this test to achieve fully reusable second-stage performance, he hopes to see the project “moving in the right direction.” Any technical milestone breakthrough could become a positive catalyst for the stock price.

The next round of financing or transaction pricing will also provide important reference points for market pricing. Whether SpaceX can break above $200 again—potentially challenging the historical high after the IPO—depends on whether the business catalysts above are actually delivered.

Conclusion

SpaceX’s drop from the $225 peak to around $140, with a cumulative decline of more than 38%, is essentially a normal adjustment of a high-valuation tech asset under a market re-pricing environment—not a destruction of long-term investment logic. Early in the IPO period, market frenzy pushed the stock to a level that would take years of performance to digest; the current pullback is simply bringing the price closer to value.

As the market moves from the “storytelling” phase into the “validating commercial value” phase, SpaceX’s future valuation will rely increasingly on quantifiable business metrics—Starlink’s revenue growth, cash flow from the rocket launch business, and the commercial capability of space infrastructure. For investors willing to endure short-term volatility, what matters is not whether the stock price rises or falls today, but “how much Starlink’s user numbers grow in the next quarter,” “what level Starship’s launch costs fall to,” and “are commercial contracts for space data centers increasing.” From these angles, SpaceX’s long-term narrative remains intact; the market is simply asking for more evidence now.

FAQ

Q1: Why has SpaceX’s stock price dropped sharply recently?

SpaceX’s stock price fell from the $225.64 peak on June 16 to $139.14 on July 14, with a cumulative decline of more than 38%. Main reasons include: early investors taking profits after the IPO; an overvalued valuation (price-to-sales multiple above 51x) needing stronger performance verification; and a float structure of only 4.3% amplifying the magnitude of volatility.

Q2: What is Musk’s net worth currently?

According to Forbes real-time data, on July 14 Musk’s net worth was $879.3 billion, down $37.9 billion from the $145 billion peak on June 16, slipping below the $900 billion threshold. He remains the world’s richest person and holds about 4.8 billion shares of SpaceX and about 700 million shares of Tesla.

Q3: What does Wall Street think about SpaceX’s long-term outlook?

Mainstream institutions are generally bullish. FactSet shows analysts’ average target price is $236; Bank of America gives a $235 “Buy” rating; and Raymond James gives an $800 target price. The core logic is that Starlink has entered a profitability stage, launch costs continue to decline, and there is long-term potential in space infrastructure.

Q4: How big is Starlink’s current business?

As of June 5, 2026, Starlink has about 12 million subscribers, with average revenue per user of about $66. Adjusted EBITDA after segment adjustments reached $7.2 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in 1Q 2026, and it has already entered a sustained profitability stage.

Q5: What other important catalysts does SpaceX have in the future?

Key items to watch: Starship’s 13th flight test (July 16), progress on Starlink user growth and enterprise contract developments, and whether SpaceX can break back above the $200 mark. Looking long term, new business lines such as space data centers and AI infrastructure may become key drivers for valuation reconfiguration.