Daily Morning Forecast | 2026.7.14

Daily Morning Forecast | 2026.07.14 07:50 Yesterday’s recap: Yesterday, the BTC watershed level was 63,600~63,800; the actual low fell to 61,826, so the judgment did not hold. For ETH, the watershed was 1,790~1,800; the low reached 1,750 as well, which also broke down. The altcoin playbook requiring defense and selection, and not chasing highs, has been兑现. Today’s main judgment is lowered to “defend before CPI; intraday rebounds are only weak corrections.”
Today’s total judgment: this rerun/trial verification time for the current move is at 09:04 Beijing time. BTC around $62,480, down 2.27% in 24 hours, with a range of 61,826~63,994; ETH around $1,785, down 2.23% in 24 hours, with a range of 1,750~1,829. Both bounced from the lows, but BTC on the 4-hour chart is still weak, and ETH hasn’t reclaimed 1,800—so you cannot directly treat it as a trend reversal.
At 20:30 Beijing time, the US will release June CPI. Today’s main line is still to defend before the event, waiting for post-data synchronization confirmation in price, trading volume, and structure.
BTC
BTC around $62,480. On the 1-hour chart, it is slightly below EMA20 around 62,552 and the 20-hour moving average around 62,512. The MACD histogram has turned positive, but it remains below the 50-hour moving average around 63,318. On the 4-hour chart, it is below EMA20 around 63,225 and the 50-period moving average around 63,360, and MACD momentum is still weak.
On the daily chart, price is holding above the 20-day moving average around 61,943, but still below EMA20 around 62,885 and the 50-day moving average around 64,350. This is weak repair, not a trend reversal.
For short-term support, watch 61,800~62,100; strong support is 61,000~61,300. Short-term resistance is 62,550~62,900; strong resistance is 63,200~64,000.
Today’s key watershed is 62,550~62,900: only after holding firmly can there be a chance to continue testing above 63,200. If it falls back below 61,800 again, first defend 61,000~61,300.
In terms of execution, don’t chase a sharp intraday spike. Before CPI, don’t fully bet on a single direction; wait for a pullback after a breakout or confirmation of a support-based sell-off stop.

ETH
ETH around $1,785. On the 1-hour chart, it has risen above EMA20 around 1,778, but remains below the 50-hour moving average around 1,794. The MACD histogram has turned positive, so the short-term strength is better than BTC. On the 4-hour chart, it is near EMA20 around 1,788 and slightly above the 50-period moving average around 1,779, but MACD momentum is falling back.
On the daily chart, it is still above EMA20 around 1,746 and the 50-day moving average around 1,750, meaning the repair structure has not been fully destroyed. ETH is relatively a bit stronger, but until 1,800 is reclaimed, you cannot enlarge altcoin risk.
For short-term support, watch 1,750~1,770; strong support is 1,720~1,735. Short-term resistance is 1,790~1,8005; strong resistance is 1,828~1,846.
Today’s key watershed is 1,790~1,8005: only with volume-backed stabilization and maintaining relative strength vs. BTC does it have conditions to test above 1,828 again. If it breaks below 1,750, first defend around 1,720.
In terms of execution, wait for structural confirmation. Don’t treat a single fast rebound as evidence of a turn to strength.

Today’s altcoin linkage judgment: ETH’s short-term relative strength is slightly better than BTC, but BTC on the 4-hour chart is still weak, and CPI is coming again in the evening—so you can’t understand a local rebound as an all-out altcoin season.
Only if BTC holds above 62,900 and reclaims 63,200, and ETH simultaneously holds above 1,805, will risk appetite have room to spread. If BTC breaks below 61,800 again or ETH loses 1,750, altcoins should prioritize reducing risk.

Public-version trading principles today: don’t chase highs, and don’t pre-bet on the CPI direction.
For existing positions, prioritize controlling total risk: if BTC breaks below 61,800 or ETH breaks below 1,750, reduce risk first. For users currently in cash/no position, wait for pullback confirmation after a pressure breakout, or for a high-volume sell-off stop near strong support.
For the full watchlist levels and single-coin strategy, follow the fast-news briefing or group document to confirm.

Risk warning: The above content is only for scenario analysis of market conditions and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset volatility is extremely high—watch your position size and stop-loss.
Market data uses Gate’s official public spot interface for cross-verification. The update time is 09:04 Beijing time on July 14, 2026. Prices may change afterward.