- Expectations for Bitcoin vs. gold: fears of selling are growing as tensions in the Middle East intensify:

Bitcoin’s price fell to below $63,000 amid ongoing risk aversion attributed to renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Gold is nearing $4,000 as its technical outlook deteriorates further, reflected in moving averages trending downward.
A rise in open interest in Bitcoin and gold futures has not succeeded in improving outlooks for either.

Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU) remain under pressure as of Monday at the time of writing this report. Bitcoin has dropped to below $63,000, while gold is approaching the important psychological support level at $4,000.

The declines suggest that a move toward risk avoidance is prevailing as investors continue assessing the impact of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Ceasefire collapse between the US and Iran amid rising tensions
US President Donald Trump said he plans to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. A CNN report noted that this development could push the US to play the role of “guard” of the strait and charge any other ships for passage.

Iranian media reported that US attacks on Iran are intensifying and expanding beyond areas along the shores of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Iranian army announced airstrikes on US allies in the region, including Kuwait and Bahrain, worsening the ceasefire agreement. Oil prices continue to rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude around $75 at the time of writing this report.

WTI crude oil price chart
Bitcoin faces pressure despite a slight increase in futures activity
Bitcoin derivatives have challenged expectations and drawn notable investor attention, as shown by open interest in perpetual futures, which hit about 760,000 bitcoins on Monday, up from 732,000 the previous day. Although this latest rise in open interest has not yet translated into a direct price move, the continuation of the increase could provide additional momentum to the market, potentially supporting a more sustained recovery for Bitcoin.

Daily trading data for Bitcoin perpetual futures | Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin maintains a bearish trend in the near term, with its price holding below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), positioned around $65,193, $68,675, and $74,713, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 48 on the daily chart is leaning downward, while the MACD—positive though falling—suggests weakening upside momentum within a constrained price environment.

Daily chart for the BTC/USDT pair
Immediate resistance is at the 50-day EMA near $65,193, followed by the 100-day EMA near $68,675, then the 200-day EMA near $74,713—levels that together form a broad supply zone limiting recovery attempts. On the downside, a recovered bearish trendline break level near $62,106 provides the first support. A break below this level would expose lower levels, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend as long as the pair remains capped under the key EMAs.

Tokenized gold derivatives rise as prices fall
The open interest market for tokenized gold derivatives (XAU) across crypto trading platforms rose to 208,000 units of XAU on Monday, from 169,000 units the previous day. Although this increase has not yet noticeably affected gold prices, it points to a broader shift of crypto investors’ capital toward real-assets.

Open interest data for tokenized gold futures | Source: CoinGlass
The price of gold versus the US dollar (XAU/USD) remains under the influence of a near-term bearish trend, trading below the 50-, 200-, and 100-day exponential moving averages, positioned around $4,300 to $4,420, indicating that the recent gains remain within a limited range. While the MACD shows a positive direction above zero—hinting at a continuing corrective rebound—the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 keeps directional pressure tilted downward, suggesting recovery attempts may struggle against the prevailing bearish trend.

Daily chart for the XAU/USDT pair
Initial resistance appears in the bearish trendline break zone near $4,178, where sellers could return to defend the broader downtrend. Above this area, the 50-day EMA at $4,298 forms a subsequent barrier, followed by the 200-day EMA at $4,326, then the 100-day EMA at $4,419—together forming a dense supply zone that must be decisively reclaimed to alleviate the current bearish bias. Any renewed weakness below the current price level of $4,015 would make the gold/USD pair vulnerable to further declines below the $4,000 psychological demand level.
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