The market has almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike expectations. If the Fed then pauses rate hikes in September, most of the bearish factors at this stage will be essentially fully realized; the key news suppressing gold prices will fade, and the price action may be poised to enter a round of corrective rebound and upward trend.

With recent geopolitical developments being released ahead of schedule and the shorts having concentrated their exits, after big-ticket bearish news is fully realized, market sentiment is likely to recover, and the gold market may start a wave of smaller-scale rebound. Going forward, the focus should be on watching inflation data and speeches by Fed officials, and seizing the opportunity of a new round of trend in line with the prevailing direction.

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