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Federal Reserve research: AI cuts the growth rate of US programmers in half, with about 500k fewer jobs over three years

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AIMPACT message, April 25 (UTC+8): Research by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors shows that after ChatGPT was released, growth in U.S. programming-related jobs slowed sharply. Before November 2022, the year-over-year growth rate for programming jobs was close to 5%, but afterward the pace fell sharply. After adjusting for industry size, the number of programmers employed still declined by about 3 percentage points per year, with a cumulative gap over three years of about 500k jobs. Programmers account for about 3.7% of the U.S. workforce; of them, about 40% work for IT services providers, where the slowdown is most evident. The study found no significant wage decline, and the impact mainly shows up in employment numbers. The gap emerged in mid-2024, about 1.5 years after ChatGPT’s release. The study notes that over 98% of measurement methods classify programmers as the occupation most affected by AI. Research from Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University found that AI agent development focuses almost entirely on programming tasks.
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