Judging from the operating **pattern** of past bear markets, we’re probably still some distance away from the true cycle macroscopic bottom. If you rush to bottom-pick now, the timing isn’t mature.

In every bear market that reaches its end, there’s inevitably a surge-in-volume selloff—panic orders **flood** in, floating supply gets fully cleared, and only then can the market get back to breathing room. This round will be no exception. At present, the market is in the accumulation phase of the 14th turning point. After this consolidation period plays out, there should be one final round of concentrated downside probing.

In the short term, BTC is expected to see a rebound and repair within the $59,000–$61,000 range first. After that, it will most likely trade in a long period of narrow-range tussling just above $60,000. This grindy state could last until late July. Bouncing up and down to test repeatedly is the most exhausting pattern for patience; many people can’t hold up in this phase and end up handing off their low-position holdings.

Once the sideways structure through late July is completed, early August should bring the last round of concentrated selling pressure from this cycle’s move. Only after that leg of the decline truly materializes will the cycle’s ultimate bottom be fully confirmed. Until then, it’s best to watch more and act less. #Anthropic二级市场估值飙升至1.2万亿美元