Bitcoin at $62,900—are you panicking?

First, look at the surface: a geopolitical conflict + leveraged liquidations, and retail traders are scrambling to escape for their lives.

In the past 24 hours, it’s down 1.3%, and trading volume has ballooned to $21 billion. On the Asian session, the bulls were targeted with precision. The price has already retraced more than 50% from the $126,198 all-time high. When it got smashed down to $57,748 on July 1, the market was filled with cries of despair.

But look at the chart: it bounced from $57,700 to $64,000+, and now it’s pulling back again to $62,900. MACD is neutral, RSI is neutral, and volume hasn’t surged in panic.

First thing: after the halving, it fell 50%. It’s always the same—every time, there are people who end up cutting their losses.

After the 2017 halving: it retraced 40% from the high, then surged 20x.

After the 2021 halving: it retraced 53% from the high, then rose 7x.

After the 2025-2026 halving: it went from $126,198 down to $57,748—down exactly 54%.

That drop right after the halving is the bull market’s final “entry ticket” for retail. But every time, 90% of people surrender before daybreak.

Second thing: ETF flows have reversed—but no one is telling you.

Last week (July 6–10), US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $197 million, ending 8 straight weeks of net outflows. BlackRock led the way, and institutional demand is starting to warm up.

Once the news hit, BTC didn’t rise. Because fear from the geopolitical conflict overwhelmed everything.

A geopolitical conflict is short-term; ETF inflows are long-term. Wall Street won’t clear out Bitcoin just because Iran fired a few missiles—they’re waiting for your bloodstained chips.

If the US and Iran go to war, oil prices rise, the dollar rises, and BTC faces short-term pressure. War is noise; ETFs are the trend.

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that you must take seriously.

$57,748 was the low of this leg. It has already rebounded 10% to $64,000+. Now it’s pulling back to $62,900. The key support is in the $61,400–$62,000 zone—former demand area plus a psychological level.

But at $63,960–$65,200, BTC has already been knocked back twice. The third time—will it punch through directly, or will it get smashed back down below $60,000?

The bulls versus the bears—you decide.

One side says:

After halving, the supply side halves, and scarcity keeps increasing

Spot ETF net inflows were $197 million last week, ending 8 weeks of outflows

Institutions (BlackRock, MicroStrategy) keep stockpiling

After the bounce from $57,700, the base is lifting—bull market continuation pattern

The Fed’s policy rate is 3.5%–3.75%, with liquidity relatively easy

The other side says:

Geopolitical conflict (US–Iran) pushes up oil prices, weighing on risk assets

A short-term break below the $63,000 psychological level; the trendline is broken

If $61,400 breaks, it may test $60,000 or even $58,500

Macroeconomic uncertainty is still high; there are variables into the end-of-July FOMC

Key levels

Resistance: $63,960 → $65,200 → $67,000+ → $80,000–$100,000 (mid-term)

Support: $61,400–$62,000 → $60,000 (psychological) → $57,700 (previous low)

For conservative observers:

Wait for the broader market to stabilize, and wait for clarity on US–Iran developments. Don’t chase shorts, and don’t blindly bottom-pick. Watch for a candlestick reversal signal around $61,400, then act.

For short-term traders:

Bulls: scale into longs at $61,000–$61,500 in batches; stop-loss at $59,800. Targets: $64,000–$65,000, and a breakout could open $67,000+. You must wait for a breakout with expanding volume and a bullish confirmation.

Bears: if it breaks down below $61,400 on high volume, short with a light position. Target $60,000 or $58,500. After taking profit, flip to long.

For mid-to-long-term DCA investors:

DCA in batches below $62,000. In past halving cycles, history has never let people down.

Every time Bitcoin drops 50%, 90% of people say, “This time is different.”

In 2018, 2022, and 2025–2026—every halving cycle starts with a hellish difficulty level, and then comes daybreak.

You didn’t dare buy at $57,700, you didn’t dare add at $63,000, and when $65,200 broke through, you still didn’t chase—then you only deserve to ask at $80,000, “Can I still get on board?”

That drop after the halving is the bull market’s last chance for the poor. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #LAB两日腰斩53% #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC $ETH $SOL