Semi-Finals: France 🇫🇷 vs Spain 🇪🇸 (July 14)

4.1 Odds data
Data source
France to win
Draw
Spain to win
FanDuel promotion odds
-158
-
+120
Implied probability
61.2%
-
45.5%
Sky Bet (July 13)
1/1 (50%)
9/4 (30.8%)
2/1 (33.3%)
Bet365
6/5 (45.5%)
11/4 (26.7%)
11/5 (31.3%)
Overall implied probabilities
~52%
~28%
~32%
4.2 Opta supercomputer prediction
Metric
France
Spain
Probability to reach the final
57.7%
42.3%
Probability to win the tournament
33.81%
24.16%
4.3 USA Today expert predictions (5 votes)
Expert
Predicted score
Jon Arnold
France 3-2
Seth Vertelney
France 3-1
Jesse Yomtov
France 1-0
Victoria Hernandez
France 2-0
Nancy Armour
France 2-1
France 4 votes, Spain 0 votes
France is the heavy favorite
4.4 Core data comparison
France’s 90-minute stats in this tournament: 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 16 goals/2 conceded, 3 knockout matches with clean sheets
Spain’s 90-minute stats in this tournament: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 12 goals/1 conceded, conceded the first goal in the knockout stage
Data dimension
France
Spain
Advantage side
Probability to reach the final
57.7%
42.3%
France
Probability to win the tournament
33.81%
24.16%
France
Odds-implied win rate
52%
32%
France
Expert support rate
80%
0%
France
Head-to-head history
38 matches, 18 wins
13 wins
Spain
4.5 Key variables
France advantage:
- Mbappé scored 8 goals this tournament, tied for the top of the scoring chart with Messi
- The “trident” (Mbappé + Dembélé + Olise) totaled 13 goals this tournament
- Deschamps has 20 World Cup wins, steady in the knockout stage
- Won their last 6 matches—strong form
Spain advantage:
- 36-game unbeaten run (team history record)
- Conceded only 1 goal (best defense in this tournament)
- In the last two major tournament semi-finals, Spain eliminated France (2024 European Championship, 2025 UEFA Nations League)
- Best goalkeeper: Unai Simón
Key player adjustments:
- Mbappé (France): 8 goals, core of the attack; top of the scoring chart
- Yamal (Spain): in his last 10 times facing Mbappé’s team, Spain won 8—huge psychological edge
- Merino (Spain): consecutive match-winning substitute kills (back-to-back)
4.6 90-minute score predictions (probability distribution method)
Baseline: xG difference of about 0.6—France has a slight edge
Score
Probability
Explanation
France 1:0
22%
Defense to win
France 2:1
16%
A strong team by a small margin
Draw 1:1
18%
Possibility of a high-tempo game
Spain 1:0
14%
Counterattack on defense
France 2:0
10%
Dominating to win
Spain 2:1
10%
Upset option
Draw 0:0
8%
Conservative tactics
Other
2%
-
Preferred: France 1:0 (22%); secondary: 1:1 draw (18%)
4.7 Odds calibration decisions
Prediction dimension
My prediction
Odds implied
Deviation
Calibration decision
France to win
50%
52%
+2%
Maintain France
Draw
25%
28%
+3%
Slightly raise the draw
Spain to win
25%
32%
+7%
Slightly raise Spain
Final prediction (90 minutes): France to win 50%, draw 25%, Spain to win 25%
Preferred score: France 1:0; secondary: 1:1
Key judgment: The market is unanimously leaning toward France, but Spain eliminated France in the semi-finals of the last two major tournaments, and their defense is excellent. Spain’s unbeaten record over 90 minutes is worth paying attention to, but the odds still show France as the heavy favorite.

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