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Semi-Finals: France 🇫🇷 vs Spain 🇪🇸 (July 14)
4.1 Odds data
Data source
France to win
Draw
Spain to win
FanDuel promotion odds
-158
-
+120
Implied probability
61.2%
-
45.5%
Sky Bet (July 13)
1/1 (50%)
9/4 (30.8%)
2/1 (33.3%)
Bet365
6/5 (45.5%)
11/4 (26.7%)
11/5 (31.3%)
Overall implied probabilities
~52%
~28%
~32%
4.2 Opta supercomputer prediction
Metric
France
Spain
Probability to reach the final
57.7%
42.3%
Probability to win the tournament
33.81%
24.16%
4.3 USA Today expert predictions (5 votes)
Expert
Predicted score
Jon Arnold
France 3-2
Seth Vertelney
France 3-1
Jesse Yomtov
France 1-0

⚽️ Match Prediction (Starts Tonight)
Tonight's highlight: France vs Morocco (July 10, 04:00)
Factor Weight Analysis:
Factor
Weight
France
Morocco
Team strength and form
30%
28%
12%
Mentality and motivation
25%
20%
18%
Experience in major tournaments
20%
18%
15%
Tactical matchup
15%
10%
8%
External variables
10%
5%
5%
Weighted total
-
81%
58%
Score prediction (probability distribution method):
- Base distribution: 1:0(25%), 2:1(16%), 0:0(20%), 1:1(8%), 2:0(10%), 3:1+(6%), 0:1/1:2(15%)
- xG difference adjustment: France +0.6 → France win probability +15%
- Mbappé adjustment: France 2:0/2:1 proba

Brazil vs Japan
🎯 Prediction reasons:
Offensive firepower: Vinicius leads with 4 goals, Brazil scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 goals per match
Defensive comparison: Brazil conceded only 2 goals in 3 matches, solid; Japan conceded 4 goals in 2 matches against European teams (Netherlands, Sweden), exposing defensive issues
Key variable: Japan has performed averagely against European teams this tournament, but as the only Asian team remaining, their fighting spirit is strong
Prediction: Brazil win 60% / Draw 25% / Japan win 15%
Score range: 2:1 / 1:1 / 3:1
⚽️ Predict the 202

June 28 (Beijing time)
Group J (Final Round)
Jordan vs Argentina
- Background: Argentina has secured top spot in the group, Jordan is eliminated
- Data: Argentina unbeaten in last 15 matches; Jordan lost all 3 group stage matches, scored 0 goals and conceded 7 goals
- Prediction: Argentina wins (probability approx 75%)
- Score range: 0:2 / 0:3 / 1:3
- Basis: Significant gap in strength between the two sides; Argentina may rotate but still holds clear advantage
Algeria vs Austria
- Background: Both teams have 3 points, competing for second place in the group
- Data: Austria goal difference -1,

June 27 Prediction (Pending Match)
Prediction Notes: Based on the latest group standings, qualification scenarios, and squad conditions of each team.
Time
Match
Group
Prediction
Win Rate
Recommended Score
03:00
Norway vs France
Group I
France Win
55%
1-2 / 1-3
03:00
Senegal vs Iraq
Group I
Senegal Win
60%
2-0 / 3-1
07:00
Egypt vs Iran
Group G
Egypt Win
50%
1-0 / 2-1
07:00
New Zealand vs Belgium
Group G
Belgium Win
65%
0-2 / 1-3
08:00
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Group H
Cape Verde Win
55%
2-1 / 1-0
08:00
Uruguay vs Spa

[World Cup Match Predictions for June 26]
Group E · Round 3 (June 26, 04:00 Beijing Time)
Ecuador vs Germany
- Prediction: Germany win
- Reference Score: 1-2 or 0-2
- Win/Draw/Loss Probability: Germany 65% | Draw 20% | Ecuador 15%
Data:
- Germany in first two rounds: 7-1 vs Curaçao, 2-1 vs Ivory Coast, total 9 goals, strongest attack in this tournament
- Ecuador in first two rounds: 0-0 vs Curaçao (goalkeeper Romo made 15 saves, a tournament record), 0-1 vs Ivory Coast, attack yet to score, frontline relies on Enner Valencia
- Germany has scored 9 goals so far, with Wirtz and

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