In 2026, will BTC and ETH bottom out—if so, how should you trade it?

In past bear markets, the pullback from the highs to the lows has usually been around 70%—80%, which is where institutions can more easily collect chips.
At present, overall, it looks like it’s getting close to the bottom, but it hasn’t truly bottomed out yet.
BTC, from its all-time high, a 70%—80% drawdown is at $37,800 or below.
ETH, from its all-time high, a 70%—80% drawdown is at $1,480 or below.
Of course, since BTC and ETH sometimes move in sync and sometimes not, and institutional participation also varies, one of these prices will be inaccurate. Personally, I’m more willing to pay attention one price at a time: since many people know BTC is stronger than ETH, I’ll first focus on the weaker one—ETH. Can its price hold above $1,480? If it can maintain above $1,480 for a long time—2 to 3 months—then personally I feel this bear cycle has already bottomed out. Institutions will then likely trade sideways and range to accumulate chips, until there’s a tangible positive catalyst and a favorable event that ignites market sentiment and kicks off the next bull market.
If you’re a spot-position trader, you can buy BTC and ETH spot in batches when ETH reaches around $1,480. Of course, you should leave yourself at least three chances to average down as a margin of error. Ideally, deploy 20%—30%—50% to fill your spot positions, in order to avoid the risk that $1,480 isn’t the true bottom.

My guess for the next bull cycle (timing in 2028 to 2031)
BTC is likely in the $170,000—$180,000 range
ETH is likely in the $8,000—$10,000 range

#BTC #ETH
$BTC ‌$ETH ‌