QCP Capital: The U.S.-Iran situation intertwined with macro events, with the market wary as crypto volatility continues to heat up

Golden Finance reported that on July 13, according to QCP Capital, 12 days have passed since the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. Military clashes broke out again over the weekend, with both sides accusing the other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the prospects ahead of the second round of talks. Oil prices remain near $70, but if supply recovery is slower than expected, there is still upside risk for oil prices.

In the crypto market, implied volatility for BTC and ETH continues to rise. Demand for 55,000–58,000 USDT BTC put options expiring in July has increased. Spot ETFs have continued net outflows, and concerns related to Strategy and pressure on U.S. stocks have dragged on market sentiment. However, the market has also seen large buy orders for 64,000 USDT BTC call options expiring on the 17th.

This week, the market will focus on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI and U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data. With liquidity expected to be thin before the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain elevated.