QCP Capital: The Iran-Iraq situation and macro events are intertwined, and the market is on alert as crypto volatility continues to heat up

Mars Finance news: According to a report by QCP Capital, 12 days have passed since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. Military clashes resumed over the weekend, with both sides accusing the other of violating a 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the outlook for the second round of talks. Oil prices are still hovering around $70, but if the supply recovery is slower than expected, there remains upside risk for oil prices.

In the crypto market, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH continues to trend higher. Demand for bearish BTC put options for the July expiry, priced at $55,000-$58,000, has increased. Spot ETFs continue to record net outflows, and concerns related to Strategy, along with pressure on US stocks, are weighing on market sentiment. However, there have also been large buy orders for $64,000 BTC call options expiring on the 17th.

This week, the market will focus on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI and US nonfarm employment data. With liquidity typically thinner before the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain high.