U.S. stocks are nearing new highs versus Bitcoin breaking below 63k: are tech stocks and crypto assets competing for the same pot of money?

On July 13, 2026, the three major U.S. stock index futures all fell together during the Asian trading session. Nasdaq 100 index futures’ decline widened to 1%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.4%, and Dow Jones index futures dropped 0.35%. This move sharply contrasted with the strong close in U.S. stocks last Friday—on July 10 (Friday), the S&P 500 rose 0.42% to 7,575.39 points, just 0.45% away from its all-time high of 7,620 points; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,281.61 points. The divergence between the spot market and the futures market is a microcosm of the deep divergence currently unfolding among risk assets.

Meanwhile, the crypto market is coming under pressure in tandem. As of July 13, 2026, based on Gate行情 data, Bitcoin is trading at $63,198 USD. Gold also faced selling pressure: spot gold slipped below the $4,100 per ounce level. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold—traditionally viewed as “similar risk assets”—are undergoing a rare round of pricing-logic reconstruction.

Spot nearing new highs while futures pull back first—what expectations are implied by the divergence

Last Friday’s rise in U.S. stock spot markets was not broad-based; it was a differentiated move driven by structural forces. The S&P 500 gained more than 1.2% for the week, and the Nasdaq rose 1.7%. The driving force was highly concentrated: SK hynix completed a record-setting foreign company IPO on the Nasdaq—its first day jumped 13% from the $149 issue price to $170, raising $26.5B; Meta rose 15% for the week, marking its best performance since early 2024; and Nvidia climbed 4%.

However, entering the new week, the futures market reacted first and differently. Nasdaq futures fell more than 1%, indicating that marginally weaker expectations for the tech sector are being priced in. The spot market’s advance was built on the strength of a handful of top stocks, while the futures decline suggests that incremental capital’s willingness to chase is fading. When indexes approach all-time highs, the market has not formed a broad expansion of risk appetite—instead, it shows a K-shaped structure characterized by “concentration at the front end and pressure at the tail.”

Between the AI narrative in tech stocks and crypto assets— is there direct competition for capital?

In the first half of 2026, AI infrastructure buildout became the core narrative line in global capital markets. NVIDIA invested $2.0 billion in Marvell Technology, and Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue exceeded $30 billion. The AI-driven tech rally pushed Nasdaq-related indexes from 23,200 points to 30,500 points.

But the energy of the AI narrative is not unlimited. In the first week of June 2026, four major semiconductor ETFs together attracted nearly $3.0 billion in net inflows, with total inflows of about $21.0 billion year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs have seen more noticeable outflows over the past month. Capital allocation across different asset categories is adjusting at the margin.

For the week ending July 1, 2026, U.S. stock funds saw total outflows of $17.2 billion, the largest single-week net redemption since March 2026. But from within the stock market, capital continued to concentrate in the tech sector—the tech funds saw inflows of $14.3 billion that week. This means capital is not fully leaving risk assets; instead, it is making a structural reallocation within risk assets—from chips, from crypto assets, and from gold, toward AI leaders.

Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation shifts from extreme synchronization to loosening—what is changing in the pricing logic?

In April 2026, Bitcoin and Nasdaq’s 30-day rolling correlation once reached a record high near 0.96—almost implying that, in a statistical sense, the two were completely synchronized. But by early June 2026, this coefficient had fallen to a level approaching zero.

The dramatic change from 0.96 to nearly zero reveals a structural shift in Bitcoin’s pricing logic. Before April 2026, Bitcoin was viewed as a substitute for “high-beta tech stocks”—when the AI narrative drove Nasdaq higher, Bitcoin benefited in sync from liquidity expansion and risk-on sentiment. But after May–June, multiple factors changed this linkage pattern: expectations for Fed policy shifted from dovish to hawkish; the U.S. May CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8%; and CME’s “Fed Watch” tool showed the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting increased from 18% a week earlier to 34%.

When macro liquidity expectations tighten, Bitcoin—one of the assets most sensitive to liquidity—was the first to come under pressure, while Nasdaq’s AI leader stocks maintained relative strength thanks to earnings resilience and industry trends. The break in their correlation essentially reflects that differences in “liquidity sensitivity” were amplified by the macro environment.

Gold and Bitcoin fall in sync—why did traditional safe-haven logic fail in 2026?

On July 13, spot gold fell more than 1% to around $4,060. From the beginning of 2026 to date, the S&P 500 is up about 9%, gold is down about 6%, and Bitcoin is down about 31%.

The combination of gold and Bitcoin falling together while stocks rise against the trend breaks several empirical rules in traditional asset allocation frameworks. Geopolitical conflicts usually boost safe-haven demand for gold—but during the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict in 2026, gold did not show sustained gains. The market believes the Middle East central bank may prioritize reconstruction financing over continuing to increase gold holdings. Bitcoin also failed to benefit from geopolitical turmoil; instead, it briefly slid to around $60k under liquidation pressure.

More importantly, the interest-rate environment has changed. When the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises and real rates increase, the carrying cost for non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin goes up. Stocks—especially AI tech stocks—can, to a certain extent, offset valuation pressure from higher rates through earnings growth. The pricing logic for the three asset types is being reordered: earnings growth > safe-haven attributes > liquidity sensitivity.

Under dual squeeze from macro and geopolitics—how will the divergence among risk assets evolve?

The market is currently in a period where multiple macro catalysts overlap. The Fed’s June meeting minutes left room for further policy tightening. On July 14, the June CPI data will be released—this will be the last key inflation datapoint before the Fed meeting on July 28–29. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues: on July 12, U.S. forces launched another round of strikes against Iran.

The combination of these macro variables has sharply different effects on different types of risk assets. For AI tech stocks, earnings growth and industry trends are the core pricing factors; rising rates create valuation pressure but do not change the direction of the trend. For Bitcoin, liquidity expectations are the core pricing factor—higher implied probabilities of Fed hikes weaken the support logic. For gold, the tug-of-war between real rates and geopolitical risk determines the near-term direction.

Some analysts already expect that if U.S. stocks see a correction in the second half of 2026, it could drive liquidity back into digital assets. But this depends on the nature of what triggers the correction—if the correction is driven by a rate shock, crypto assets may face pressure in parallel; if it is driven by a marginal weakening of the AI narrative, a rotation of capital from tech stocks to crypto assets may truly occur.

From a cross-asset allocation perspective—how to understand the market’s structural signals

Asset performance in the first half of 2026 sends a clear structural signal: the S&P 500 rose 9%, gold fell 6%, and Bitcoin fell 31%—three categories showing an extreme divergence rarely seen over the past decade.

Behind this divergence are three rounds of core catalytic factors switching in sequence: the Fed’s hawkish policy reversal suppresses liquidity-sensitive assets; the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict shocks the pricing logic for traditional safe havens; and the AI infrastructure investment boom pushes tech stocks to stand out independently. Each round of catalyst factors has an asymmetric impact across different asset classes.

For cross-asset allocation, the market’s key message is that the traditional binary framework of “risk assets/safe-haven assets” is failing. Under the combined effects of the AI narrative, rate expectations, and geopolitical conflicts, differences in performance within the same category may be greater than differences between categories. The fact that the S&P 500 is approaching its all-time high while Nasdaq futures are falling 1% at the same time is a direct manifestation of this kind of structural divergence.

Summary

On July 13, 2026, the divergence between U.S. stock spot and futures markets occurred alongside two key milestones: the S&P 500 approaching its all-time high while Bitcoin broke below $63k at the same time. Together, they point to a core reality: risk assets are undergoing a deep restructuring of their pricing logic. The AI narrative drove an independent rally in tech stocks, but it also intensified structural divergence within the market; the Fed policy expectation shift suppressed liquidity-sensitive assets; and geopolitical conflicts disrupted traditional safe-haven logic. Correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq fell from 0.96 to near zero, marking that crypto assets are moving out of the “high-beta tech stocks” pricing framework and entering a new stage dominated by liquidity expectations. For investors, understanding how different asset classes are sensitive to rates, geopolitics, and industry trends is more practical than simply judging whether risk appetite is rising or falling.

FAQ

Q: How much room does the S&P 500 have before reaching its all-time high?

As of the July 10, 2026 close, the S&P 500 was at 7,575.39 points, only about 44.61 points, or roughly 0.45%, below the all-time high of 7,620 points. The market is waiting for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season to see whether valuations can be supported by earnings.

Q: What does a 1% drop in Nasdaq futures imply?

Nasdaq 100 index futures’ decline widened to 1%. Typically, this reflects weakening expectations for the tech sector in the near term. It could be influenced by factors such as rising Fed rate-hike probabilities, higher Treasury yields, and profit-taking by investors ahead of earnings season.

Q: Why did the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq fall from 0.96 to near zero?

In April 2026, Bitcoin and Nasdaq’s 30-day rolling correlation briefly reached 0.96. After that, factors including a shift in Fed policy expectations toward hawkishness and inflation data exceeding expectations caused Bitcoin—viewed as a liquidity-sensitive asset—to come under pressure first, while Nasdaq’s AI leader stocks stayed strong thanks to earnings resilience. Their correlation dropped sharply as a result.

Q: If gold and Bitcoin both fall, does that mean safe-haven logic has failed?

From the start of 2026 to date, gold is down about 6%, Bitcoin is down about 31%, while the S&P 500 is up about 9%. The traditional “geopolitical conflict → safe-haven asset rallies” logic has been disrupted in 2026 by multiple factors, including the possibility that Middle East central banks may prioritize reconstruction financing over increasing gold holdings, and higher Treasury yields raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Q: Will the divergence trend among risk assets continue?

Whether the divergence trend persists depends on how multiple macro variables evolve, including the Fed’s policy signals for the July meeting, the June CPI data, developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the earnings performance of the AI sector. Differences in sensitivity across asset classes to rates, geopolitics, and industry trends determine whether divergence may continue in the short term.