Bitcoin reaches a critical turning point; the July market could determine the trend for the next month

Let’s talk about the recent market. BTC’s possible走势 over the past few days: the longer-term outlook is actually hard to predict for now, because there are too many factors involved. And right now we’re in a critical turning-point stage. If BTC hasn’t been performing well recently, then the next few weeks to the next month might also be rough.

Earlier, I mentioned that BTC’s future行情 hinges on several key factors: a clear legislative bill, the FOMC meeting, the semiconductor sector’s走势, MicroStrategy’s sell-off, the US-Iran situation, and so on. In fact, it’s far more than just these.

Today, the South Korean stock market hit another circuit breaker. This month, it seems there have been multiple circuit breakers. And even though SK Hynix listed in the US, it still didn’t bring more positive momentum—it's still hitting circuit breakers. This shows one thing: the capital in semiconductors is extremely sensitive right now; some investors are getting “fear of heights”!

So the South Korean market’s circuit breaker will likely spill over to the US semiconductor stocks. Going forward, the semiconductor行情 probably won’t be as explosive as before. It may either chop around for a while; and if companies’ quarterly reports all end up “beating expectations,” then after the consolidation it could move higher. Otherwise, it might not be good.

Also, why is Hynix down today? It seems a brokerage said Hynix’s earnings are 8% worse than expectations. See what I mean? In this market, semiconductor earnings will basically “snap lower” if they don’t beat expectations.

How could a company’s earnings always keep beating expectations? That should be very difficult. And right now, the market needs every semiconductor company to beat expectations—making it even harder. So if you’re still trading semiconductors, it might be worth watching from the sidelines for now, unless there’s a particularly good opportunity—when good semiconductor companies have already dropped enough.

And as for this round of semiconductor sell-off, I don’t really think it’s all bad. At least the AI bubble won’t form that quickly. This drawdown brings semiconductors back toward more normal valuations, which is beneficial for the development of the AI sector.

For the crypto market, I also think it’s positive. Funds can flow back to areas with “value gaps.” For example, BTC and ETH: their prices are still very low. With BTC, when the 2024 BTC ETF just started, BTC was roughly around this price. And for ETH, the biggest “treasury” company bitmine has costs of over 2800. Now if you buy at 1800, it’s about 50% cheaper than that listed company—talk about a bargain!

BTC K-line行情 Monthly (month line) level: Last month closed as a big bearish candle. If the trend continues, this month could also close bearish. So BTC’s move this month is crucial. If it manages to stop the decline, then over the coming months it may gradually improve. If it ends up with another small bearish candle, then that process will be extended.

Weekly level: There hasn’t been a breakout of the key 6.6w mark. So from the bigger trend perspective, there hasn’t been a reversal. Last week printed a doji, which indicates there’s still pressure here. Let’s see how this week goes.

Daily level: The daily chart also hasn’t been good. It hasn’t broken above the key 6.6w–6.7w area, so the move is still relatively weak. It may still dip again. Then we’ll watch whether the 5.8w support can hold up.

4H level: The move up from 5.8w has been okay. Even though price has been held down around 6.46w, the bottom has been steadily rising. As long as today it can stay above 6.2w, this trend hasn’t been broken, and there’s still hope to break to a new high. But 6.6w is still resistance.

Summary

Overall, at present Bitcoin is still at a very critical point.

The daily, weekly, and even monthly charts are all waiting for a direction choice.

If next, with an influx of incremental capital, BTC can successfully break through the key resistance zone of $66k–$67k, then the daily chart will first complete a trend reversal. The weekly structure will also improve alongside it, and further drive the monthly chart to gradually repair. Market sentiment would change noticeably.

But if it keeps failing to break through— or even drops back below important support again—then the next few weeks of行情 may still be range-bound and continue to face pressure.

Therefore, I think the next one to two weeks will determine the overall direction for July—and even for the market over the next month. It’s worth paying close attention.