#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 The Roar of the Strait: July 12, 2026

I. Introduction: When “for now” becomes “until further notice”
On July 12, 2026, an ordinary Sunday became history after a roar from the Strait of Hormuz.
In the early hours local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement: the Strait of Hormuz would be closed effective immediately, until further notice, and until the United States stopped interfering in the region. No vessels would be allowed to pass. Shortly afterward, U.S. Central Command announced it was initiating the third round of strikes against Iran this week. Reports from multiple places in southern Iran—Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Port Abbas, and others—said explosions were heard.
The strait through which about one-fifth of global oil trade flows was shut down overnight. Over-the-counter crude prices surged sharply: the New York over-the-counter crude benchmark rose 3.27%, while Brent over-the-counter crude rose 3.10%. The cryptocurrency market plunged again, with 58.2k people globally liquidated.
This is not a small-scale escalation of friction. This is a strategic showdown.
II. The Strait of Hormuz: From “fee-based diplomacy loops” to full blockade
（一）The spark: a merchant vessel and a missile
The direct cause of the incident was a container ship flying the Cypriot flag. According to the Iranian side’s statement, several vessels tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via routes that had not been approved by Iran, ignoring the prompts and warnings from Iran to adjust course. One vessel shut down its automatic identification system, and was hit by a cruise missile fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, forcing it to stop. The attack caused one crew member to go missing; the ship caught fire, the engine room was severely damaged, and it could not continue sailing.
Subsequently, the Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the strait.
But the U.S. narrative is entirely different. U.S. officials said that this week’s renewal of fighting was due to an “uncontrolled faction” within Iran’s hardliners attempting to sabotage the ceasefire arrangements. The U.S. demanded that Iran publicly declare that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open and commit to not attacking merchant ships, as a core condition for continuing negotiations.
A ship, a missile, and two starkly different narratives—truth is always the first casualty in war.
（二）Strategic upgrade from “service fees” to “full closure”
Looking back at the past month, Iran’s posture on the Strait of Hormuz issue made a clear three-step progression:
First stage: charging fees. The Iranian ambassador to China, Fazli, had previously stated clearly in Beijing that Iran planned to impose a “service fee” on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Second stage: warning firing and selective interception. Over the past week, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps repeatedly carried out warning shots and interceptions against “violating” vessels.
Third stage: full closure. In the early hours of July 12, Iran no longer distinguished between “compliant” and “violating” vessels—all ships were forbidden to pass.
The logic behind this escalation is straightforward: Iran realized that the Strait of Hormuz had become a diplomatic lever with more weight than the nuclear issue. As some analysts noted, less than a month after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire understanding memorandum was reached, the two countries fought again over control of the strait. The root cause was that Trump wanted to pressure Iran into reaching an agreement as soon as possible, while Iran wanted to secure more leverage for negotiations.
（三）Trump’s predicament: not enough cards
Iran’s willingness to take such a hard line is because it has seen through Trump’s playbook.
First, global oil prices have dropped sharply by 35% from their May highs, and U.S. equities hit fresh record highs—reducing Trump’s worries and giving him room to intensify military intimidation. But on the other hand, Trump both wants to suppress gas prices and inflation to boost public sentiment and improve prospects in the midterm elections, and yet he doesn’t dare risk large-scale U.S. troop casualties by invading Iran with ground forces.
More importantly, Mujtaba, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, has just finished consolidating power. The late Supreme Leader Khamenei’s funeral rites showed unprecedented domestic unity, and under U.S. diplomatic pressure, representatives from nearly a hundred countries still attended. Mujtaba has issued a written statement saying he will take “revenge” for Khamenei and the victims who died. An Iran that has just completed a power handover, with public sentiment high and the leader’s vow of revenge in place, will not easily back down under pressure.
For Trump to break Iran’s “delay tactic,” he would have to force it with war. But the premise of forcing with war is that the other side believes you will really carry it through—and Iran clearly does not.
II. Financial markets’ “split personality” worsens
This week, gold’s movement was shocking, but it ultimately closed nearly flat—down less than 2% on the week, with gold ending at about $4,120 per ounce. When oil prices rise, market inflation anxiety intensifies: the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly surged to 4.58%, dragging gold lower.
And when news arrived that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, over-the-counter crude prices shot up. Cryptocurrency, seen as a risk appetite indicator, plunged: Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 0.60%. The same world, different assets—giving entirely different pricing. Markets have already split so far that they can no longer form a unified reaction to the same event.
In its latest forecast published on July 12, the IMF lowered its 2026 global economic growth expectation while raising its forecast for overall inflation to 4.7%. The ghost of “stagflation,” from the 1970s, is quietly returning in the summer of 2026.
III. When the strait can be shut overnight
On July 12, 2026, the world showed an unsettling picture:
In the Strait of Hormuz, a strait carrying one-fifth of global oil trade can be closed within hours. International energy security no longer depends on supply and demand or market mechanisms, but on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ single phrase: “until further notice.”
In Ankara, the NATO summit has just ended, leaving the world with a revolver, the shortest joint declaration in history, and an alliance that is unwilling to even promise the time of the next meeting.
In Washington, the Federal Reserve has for the first time listed AI as an inflation driver. The world’s most important central bank is wavering between “rate hikes” and “no rate hikes,” while inflation has already risen to 4.7%.
All anchors of the old order—Hormuz’s energy anchor, NATO’s security anchor, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate anchor, and great-power relationship trust anchors—are shaking at the same time and even breaking. And the outline of a new order is nowhere near taking shape.