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🔥Bitcoin breaks a record as it trades at a level far below gold: The signal that previously marked the start of a 660% surge in $BTC
the BTC/Gold ratio has just hit the deepest oversold level in history:
- The BTC/Gold oscillator is at -1.81 standard deviations from its long-term trend—lower than the 4-year average (-1.42), and the deepest since 2010.
- 1 BTC currently buys only ~15.9 oz of gold, versus more than 30 oz at the start of 2025 and a long-term average of ~63 oz.
-> The double cause is that BTC is down ~32% since the start of the year (with June alone down 20%—the worst in 4 years), while gold has risen nearly 92% over the past 2 years.
History shows similar bottoms in this ratio appearing in 2015, 2018-2019, COVID 2020, and the 2022 FTX event—each occurring near major reversal points. Drops of ~-62% on this indicator are often followed by an average rebound of ~160%.
The model also suggests the value of $BTC at the next peak around $283K (note this is a model number, not investment advice).