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The probability of a successful US-Iran diplomatic talks outcome has dropped significantly.

2026-07-13 07:00:18

According to ME News on April 26 (UTC+8), market prediction data shows that in the event “A diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran in…?”, the probability of the “Yes” option for “US-Iran diplomatic talks to be held by April 29, 2026” fell from 65.5% to 15.5%, a single-day drop of 50.0 percentage points.

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