What impact does the Strait of Hormuz incident really have on BTC and ETH?

Short term
Rising geopolitical tensions will reduce the market’s risk appetite. Funds will sell off crypto and rotate into USD and gold for safe-haven purposes, putting simultaneous pressure on BTC and ETH, with both “big coin” and “second coin” falling. In addition, high leverage in the crypto market means panic selling can easily trigger a chain liquidation cascade, leading to weak rebound strength—bearish in the short term.
At the same time, oil prices rising lifts global inflation, and market expectations are that the Fed will keep interest rates high, continuously suppressing crypto asset valuations.

BTC short term
Resistance levels: first resistance 63,200; strong resistance 63,800
Support levels: first support 62,400; key defense 61,800
On a rebound touching the 63,100-63,300 range, place a small short position; stop loss 63,900; targets 62,500 → 61,900;
Don’t proactively bottom-pick. If there is a sharp drop to around 61,800, try a small long position; stop loss 61,400; exit on rebound at 62,600.

ETH short term
Resistance levels: first resistance 1,795-1,805; extreme resistance 1,830
Support levels: short-term support 1,750; strong support 1,715-1,728
On a rebound 1,792-1,802, place a small short; stop loss 1,835; take profit 1,760 → 1,720
​If it drops to around 1,718, try a small long; stop loss 1,700; exit in batches on rebound at 1,780
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Long term
Iran will use crypto to bypass the USD for energy settlement, which will bring incremental buy-side demand long term—this is a distant bullish factor. In the short term, the price may be hard to reflect that logic.

BTC long term
Core support zone: 60,500-61,000, the maximum catchment area for this round of geopolitical panic sell-off;
Long-term setup: if it drops to around 60,800, build longs in batches; stop loss 59,600; long-term targets 65,500 and 67,800.

ETH long term
First layout zone: 1,650-16901.
​Ultimate defense: 1,580
Batch long orders: when price falls back to around 1,670, take the first layer of bottom positions; add at 1,650; unified stop loss 1,570
​Long-term take-profit targets: first target 1,880; second target 2,020

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In the near term, prioritize watching or going short short term—don’t blindly bottom-pick. Only after the geopolitical panic has been fully digested and the standoff becomes long-term, consider building long positions for the long term.
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