BTC today fell from a high of 64,390 and is currently hovering around 62,800, with the intraday low at 62,640. The technicals are weakening across the board: the short-term moving averages EMA20 and EMA60 have both been broken to the downside, and the MACD green histogram is still expanding—suggesting the bearish structure has not fully played out.

RSI shows 26 on the 1-hour and 39 on the 4-hour, indicating short-term oversold conditions. This level is not suitable for chasing shorts; waiting for a rebound is the more reasonable rhythm. The lower Bollinger Band is at 63,200. Price has already fallen out of the band, and in the short term it is more likely to rebound first before choosing a direction.

Funding rates are still positive. Open interest is close to 1.95B, indicating the bulls have not fully exited. Going forward, watch for stop-loss cascades. As for ETFs, net inflows over the past day were $90.4 million, but the previous days also saw significant outflows—institutional capital has not yet formed a continuous return.

On the macro front, pressure remains substantial. U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.578%, the U.S. Dollar Index is 100.96, and oil prices are up nearly 4%. The market is starting to price in the risk that the Fed will maintain high rates—or even hike. Tuesday’s U.S. CPI is the next key milestone.

Asian markets are also falling today: Japan’s Nikkei is down more than 2%, and South Korea’s composite index at one point was down more than 7%. Risk-off sentiment from outside markets is one reason behind BTC’s pullback.

On-chain, someone swapped 13,708 ETH into 393.4 BTC, with a size of about 25 million—more like a relative-strength trade. It provides some support for BTC, but it can’t lift the broader market. Mining difficulty has been adjusted down by 5% to 127.17T, easing marginal pressure on miners and is a modest medium-to-long-term positive. However, stablecoin total market cap fell by about $7.7 billion in June, meaning liquidity is still shrinking.

On the liquidation chart, after breaking 61k, long liquidation pressure is about $500 million. Above 65k, short liquidation pressure is about $880 million.

In terms of trading: at the current level of 62,800, the shorting reward-to-risk is average. It’s better to wait for a rebound into the 63,200–63,800 range before considering adding shorts more safely. The first target is 62,640. If it breaks down, watch 61,000. Stop loss is above 64,400.