July 13 market analysis

BTC is currently around 62.82K, with a 24-hour high of 64.39K and a low of 62.64K. During the day, it has clearly pulled back from above 64K.
Technicals are bearish
The price has broken below the 1-hour EMA20 at 63.79K and EMA60 at 63.83K, and it has also fallen below the 4-hour EMA20 at 63.74K and EMA60 at 62.88K.
In the 4-hour MACD, DIF is 134 and DEA is 270. The green histogram continues to expand, and the short-term downtrend structure has not finished yet.
The 1-hour RSI is already at 26, and the 4-hour RSI is at 39, indicating the short-term market is oversold. So the current level is not suitable for chasing a short.
The lower band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands is at 63.2K. The price has already dropped below the lower band. Next, it is more likely to first rebound, then move in a direction.
Perps funding rate is still positive at 0.0048%, with open interest around $62.82k. When the price fell, longs have not fully been cleared. Below, long liquidation stop-loss cascades still need to be watched.
The ETF’s most recent trading day was July 10. Net inflows were $90.40 million, but in the prior two days there were outflows of $84.90 million and $95.30 million respectively, so institutional flows have not yet returned continuously.
Macro-wise, over the past 24 hours, the biggest hotspot remains the escalation of the Middle East situation. The U.S. has again targeted Iran, disputes over passage through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, and both Brent and WTI crude have risen by nearly 4% intraday.
Crude oil moving higher will amplify inflation expectations. The market is starting to price in the risk that the Fed will maintain high interest rates and even shift toward rate hikes.
On-chain, a whale sold 13,708 ETH, converted it to 393.4 BTC, with a scale of about $25 million. This is a relative strength trade of ETH/BTC, providing a bit of support for BTC, but the size is not large enough to reverse the broader market.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is down 5% to 127.17T. Pressure on miners is marginally easing. This is a medium- to long-term positive, with limited impact in the short term.
Total stablecoin market cap decreased by about $7.7 billion in June, the largest monthly drawdown since Terra. Overall liquidity remains somewhat contractionary.
On-chain, near-term holders’ sell pressure has cooled somewhat, but whether institutional capital can return continuously has not been confirmed yet.
On the liquidation chart: after BTC broke below 61K, the accumulated long liquidation pressure on major exchanges is about $501 million. Above 65K, there is about $882 million in short liquidation pressure.
Right now, shorting directly at 62.8K is chasing. Wait for a rebound to 63.2K to 63.8K, then consider adding shorts.
The first target is 62.64K. If it breaks, then watch 61K.
Place the stop-loss above 64.4K.