Crypto News Daily Brief | July 13, 2026

1️⃣ 🔴极高 | The Iran–US conflict fully escalates—Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz + attacks 4 cargo ships + US military launches its 4th strike

Event: On July 12, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "until the United States stops interfering." The same day, Iranian fast boats intercepted and seized 1 LNG carrier to Iranian territorial waters, and also attacked 3 merchant ships (Saudi oil tanker, UAE container ship, and a Greek bulk carrier). At 17:00 on July 12, the US Central Command announced the 4th round of military strikes against Iran, with 140+ military targets hit. Explosions were reported from the Abbas Port and the Sirik area in Iran.

Crypto impact: Geopolitical black swan → oil prices surge → inflation expectations heat up → Fed rate hikes probability rises → BTC under pressure. At the start of Asia trading on July 13, Brent +3.25% to $78.28, WTI +3% to $73.64. BTC fell back from above $64K into the $63.6K range.

2️⃣ 🔴极高 | Oil surges 3%+ and returns to a war-premium pricing pattern—Brent jumps to $78 → inflation transmission path restarts

Data:

• Brent September futures: $78.28 (+3.25%), up 5.39% on the week
• WTI August futures: $73.64 (+3%), up 3.96% on the week
• The G value (geopolitical factor) rebounds rapidly from 1.5-2.0 to 3.0-4.0
• H_Factor (strait factor) raised to +$5.0-7.0 per barrel
• War-risk insurance premium stays at an extreme high of 5%-8%
• In the past 24h, only 11 merchant ships passed through the strait (8 oil tankers + 3 cargo ships)

Crypto impact: Oil prices spike → US gasoline prices near the $4/gal psychological level → CPI inflation upside risk → CPI data on July 14 may come in above expectations → hawkish hearing in Congress → BTC valuation under pressure for risk assets. The predicted Brent mid-term level for August is raised to $80-88 per barrel.

3️⃣ 🟠高 | BTC/ETH ETF ends 8 weeks of outflows—total net inflow for the week $282 million, led by IBIT

Data:

• Weekly net inflow for BTC spot ETFs: $197.4 million
• Weekly net inflow for ETH spot ETFs: $84.42 million
• Both-asset ETFs turn positive at the same time, ending the longest 8 consecutive weeks of outflows since the launches in 2024 (cumulative net outflow $9.46 billion)
• July 12 single-day data: GBTC +$23M, ARKB +$13M, BITB +$28.4M, FBTC $0, FETH +$12M; IBIT data not yet released, other BTC ETFs cumulative +$76.1M

Crypto impact: A structural inflection signal—after 8 weeks of outflows, the first time both-asset ETFs see net inflows simultaneously. BlackRock IBIT continues to lead, strengthening the logic of institutions buying on dips. But it’s only one week of data, and the durability of the trend still needs to be verified later.

4️⃣ 🟠高 | Dual catalysts this week—June CPI (7/14) + Wash hearing debut (7/14-15)

Key points:

• July 14, 20:30 Beijing time: US June CPI (overall expectation 4.2%, core 2.9%)
• July 14, 22:00: Wash appears at the House Financial Services Committee hearing (first congressional testimony)
• July 15: Wash appears at the Senate Banking Committee hearing
• Wash is the first Fed chair to disclose holding BTC → lawmakers may ask questions about crypto regulation → a true crypto-focused risk event
• Probability of keeping rates unchanged in July is about 66%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is over 50%

Crypto impact: CPI above expectations + Wash hawkishness = the biggest bearish combination this week; CPI mild + Wash neutral = opens the path for BTC to rebound to $65-68K. Deribit options expire on 7/17 monthly; professional traders are betting BTC falls in the $66-68K range.

5️⃣ 🟠高 | After 7 years of dormancy, a whale transfers 2,931 BTC ($188 million)—possible sell-pressure signal

Event: According to OnchainLens monitoring, a BTC whale address that has been inactive for 7 years will transfer 2,931 BTC (about $188 million) to a new address. If it sells, the address could realize roughly 10x investment returns.

Crypto impact: Whale activity sparks market concerns about sell pressure. In the recent period, whale addresses have accumulated 270k BTC near $58K-$59K (supply side relatively tight), but the transfer by a 7-year dormant whale may break this pattern. Watch whether it enters exchanges.

6️⃣ 🟡中 | BTC holds $63K+; touched a new two-week high intraday of $64K—Fear index at 26, but ETF funds return

Data:

• BTC: $63,657 (24h -0.11%), 24h high $64,205, 24h low $63,672
• ETH: $1,806 (24h +0.2%), RSI Hunter reports $1,818.83
• Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
• Total crypto market cap: $2.28T (-0.2%)
• 24h trading volume: $48.2B
• BTC Dominance: 56.3%
• Liquidation data: relatively low in 24h (BTC liquidations only $20.7M), no abnormal concentrated liquidations

Crypto impact: BTC’s two-week consecutive green closes (weekly close $63,019) signals strength and it stands on $63K support. But the Fear & Greed Index is only 26, meaning retail sentiment remains extremely bearish; a clear divergence forms between institutions buying via ETFs on dips and retail panic. $64K is key weekly resistance—if it closes above, it may open the $65-68K path.

7️⃣ 🟡中 | Gold breaks below $4,100 + silver drops over 2%—"safe-haven assets don’t避险" narrative continues

Data:

• COMEX gold: $4,104.1 (-0.64%), down 0.21% on the week
• COMEX silver: $59.809 (-0.94%), down 12.5% from the June high of $67.86
• Asia trading on July 13: spot gold breaks below $4,100 (-0.8%), silver $58.65 (-2%+)
• Gold has fallen 6% from the June 17 high of $4,358.9

Crypto impact: Gold and silver fall instead when geopolitical conflicts escalate → safe-haven narrative fails → no funds flow into gold and no funds flow into BTC → a "double safe-haven failure" pattern. For BTC, if safe-haven assets fail broadly, liquidity may return to the US dollar and high-yield assets rather than risk assets.

8️⃣ 🟡中 | Circle gets approved as a national trust bank + "the first stablecoin stock" jumps upward—stablecoin normalization milestone

Event:

• On July 10, Circle received approval to establish a US national trust bank → upgrades to USDC compliant infrastructure
• Circle stock price (CRCL) jumped from $31 since listing to $66-67 (+160%+), and rose another 5% on Friday
• The label of "the first stablecoin stock" continues to attract attention from capital

Crypto impact: Stablecoin normalization → stronger compliance for the USDC underlying layer → more solid DeFi and on-chain payment infrastructure. However, the stablecoin total market cap shrank by $7.7 billion in June (the largest month drop since the Terra collapse), leading to near-term supply contraction.

9️⃣ 🟡中 | South Korea’s central bank on 7/16 is overwhelmingly likely to hike rates to 2.75%—Asia-Pacific tightening cycle continues

Data:

• South Korea central bank July 16 expected to raise 25bp to 2.75%
• AJP survey: all members agreed to hike
• Citigroup expects quarterly hikes in the second half, lifting terminal rate to 3.5%
• South Korea central bank governor Shin Hyun-soo clearly stated "we need to raise the benchmark rate at the appropriate time"

Crypto impact: Asia-Pacific tightening cycle (South Korea rate hike + Japan corporate prices + 7.1%) → global liquidity at the margin tightens → macro pressure on risk assets like BTC facing the strain of "multiple central banks tightening at the same time." South Korea stocks saw KOSPI open +3.6% on July 10, but volatility is huge thereafter; uncertainty remains high until the rate-hike footnote lands.

🔟 🟡中 | BIP 110 protocol governance controversy—Saylor + Adam Back defend consensus stability

Event: Adam Back published a long post discussing BIP 110 (an anti-spam proposal). Michael Saylor forwarded it and publicly supported it. Their core view: the most fundamental consensus rules of Bitcoin should not be changed casually just to deal with spam transactions. Rule stability is the biggest advantage that Bitcoin has had running since 2017.

Crypto impact: Neutral to mildly bullish—community remains cautious about modifying consensus → strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a "cannot easily be changed money system" → long-term value logic is maintained. But there is no direct catalyst for the short-term price.

📊 Key data snapshot

| Indicator | Value | Change | Notes | | --------------- | --------- | ----------- | ---------------------------- | | BTC | $63,657 | -0.11% | Broke above $64K intraday (over two-week new high) | | ETH | $1,806 | +0.2% | Tight-range consolidation | | Fear & Greed Index | 26 | Fear | Retail extremely bearish | | BTC Dominance | 56.3% | — | BTC relatively strong | | BTC ETF weekly net inflow | +$197.4 million | Ends 8-week outflows | IBIT leads | | ETH ETF weekly net inflow | +$84.42 million | Ends 8-week outflows | ETHA drives | | Brent crude oil | $78.28 | +3.25% | War premium returns | | WTI crude oil | $73.64 | +3% | Up 3.96% on the week | | COMEX gold | $4,104 | -0.64% | Safe-haven narrative fails | | COMEX silver | $59.81 | -0.94% | Down 12.5% from the high | | DXY | ~120.69 | High-level muted | Fell from 121.15 on July 1 | | 10Y US Treasuries | ~4.56% | +8bp/week | Yield rising | | 2Y US Treasuries | ~4.21% | +7bp/week | Short end rises in sync |

🕐 Key timeline (July 12-13)

| Time | Event | | ------------- | -------------------------------------- | | 7/12 early morning | Iranian Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz | | 7/12 early morning | Iranian fast boats seize an LNG carrier to Iranian territorial waters | | 7/12 daytime | Four merchant ships attacked/harassed in the strait | | 7/12 17:00 | US military announces 4th strike on Iran (140+ targets) | | 7/12 night | Explosions reported across Iran (Abbas Port, Sirik) | | 7/12 night | Three border outposts in northern Kuwait attacked | | 7/13 Asia open | Brent +3.25% to $78.28, WTI +3% to $73.64 | | 7/13 Asia open | Gold breaks below $4,100 (-0.8%), silver -2%+ | | 7/13 Asia open | Dollar strengthens by 10+ points, Nasdaq futures -0.4% | | 7/13 morning | BTC holds near $63.6K; whale transfers 2,931 BTC |

📈 Versus the previous day (July 12 vs July 9)

| Dimension | July 9 | July 12 | Trend | | --------------- | -------------- | ------------------------- | ------------- | | BTC | ~$62,168 | ~$63,657 | ↑ Holds above $63K | | ETH | ~$1,699 | ~$1,806 | ↑ Rebound and repair | | Fear index | 17 (extreme fear) | 26 (fear) | ↑ Slight improvement | | BTC ETF daily net inflow | +$80M (4 straight inflows) | +$76.1M (partial) | → Inflows continue | | Brent | ~$76 | ~$76 (Friday close)→$78 (Monday open) | ↑ War premium | | US-Iran conflict | 3rd round US military strike | 4th round + Iran closes the strait | ↑↑ Fully escalates | | DXY | high level | ~120.69 | ↓ Slight pullback | | 10Y US Treasuries | — | ~4.56% | ↑ 8bp/week |

🧠 Core judgment

This week is a "macro definition week"—CPI on July 14 + Wash’s hearing will determine whether BTC can rebound from $63K to the $65-68K range, and the escalation of the US–Iran conflict has already injected upside inflation risk in advance. Three logic threads intersect:

1. Geopolitics → inflation → rate hikes: Strait of Hormuz closure → oil prices $78+ → CPI may beat expectations → Wash hawkishness → rate-hike odds in September rise → BTC valuation ceiling pressured
2. ETF flows → institutional bottom signal: 8-week outflow ends + both-asset ETFs net inflow at the same time → institutions recognize value near $63K → deeper divergence between retail fear and institutional buying
3. Whale anomaly → supply-side tug-of-war: 7-year dormant whale transfers $188 million BTC vs whales adding 270k BTC near $58-59K → supply-side signals conflict, need to watch whether it hits exchanges Path forecast:

• Bullish path: CPI mild (<4.0%) + Wash neutral → BTC breaks above $64K weekly resistance → $65-68K target range → 7/17 options expire in the $66-68K band
• Bearish path: CPI above expectations (>4.5%) + Wash hawkish → BTC breaks below $62K → retest $60K → in extreme cases revisit the $57,700 cycle low
• Neutral path: CPI meets expectations + Wash cautious → BTC consolidates in the $62-64K range → wait for the next catalyst