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Federal Reserve research: AI has cut the growth rate for US programmers by half, resulting in about 500k fewer jobs over three years

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AIMPACT, April 25 (UTC+8): Research from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board shows that after ChatGPT was released, growth in U.S. programming-related jobs slowed significantly. Before November 2022, the year-over-year growth rate for programming jobs was close to 5%; afterward, the pace dropped sharply. After adjusting for industry size, the number of programmers employed still fell by about 3 percentage points per year, with a cumulative gap of about 500k jobs over three years. Programmers account for about 3.7% of the U.S. workforce, with around 40% working for IT services providers, where the slowdown is most pronounced. The study found no clear wage declines; the impact mainly shows up in employment numbers. The gap emerged in mid-2024, about 1.5 years after ChatGPT’s release. The study noted that over 98% of measurement methods place programmers among the occupations most affected by AI. A study by Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University found that AI agent development is almost entirely focused on programming tasks.
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