#BernsteinSaysMemoryBullMarketToLastUntil2027 I discussed this topic in detail earlier, quoting Bernstein analyst Mark Li's view that the memory chip cycle will remain strong until 2027, with a potential normalization only beginning in the second half of 2027. To briefly recap, DRAM contract prices jumped 57% in a single quarter in April, with a similar 65-70% increase in NAND, leading Bernstein to raise its Micron target price from $510 to $1,300 and its SanDisk target from $1,700 to $3,000.

As a new development, it's worth noting that this thesis is being retested in light of the recent turmoil in the Korean market. Samsung's sharp decline in stock prices despite reporting record second-quarter earnings, and the fact that leveraged ETFs now account for over 70% of the Korean market, indicates that the market is now approaching this structural memory cycle thesis with more caution. So Bernstein's fundamental view that it will last until 2027 is still valid, but short-term price movements are clouding this thesis with concentration risk and excessive volatility stemming from leverage, rather than directly confirming it.

For those following the semiconductor sector through Gate, the crucial point is that this divergence between Bernstein's structural thesis and the market's short-term pricing is particularly critical because it comes immediately after SK Hynix's Nasdaq listing, which will offer a new and broader indication of how global investors are pricing this thesis.