Gu Jingci: 7.12 Bitcoin/Ethereum weekly line is about to close—price action is about to trigger

After the weekend rally, Bitcoin/Ethereum have remained in tight-range consolidation and sideways trading at high levels. Our short ideas around the 64,500 and 1,800 lines that we laid out again last night have stayed unchanged. After the low in the early session at 1,780 and 63,600, a rebound was launched again, but the follow-through between bulls and bears has been weak. With external negative catalysts coming one after another, yet without an effective sell-off or push-up, there hasn’t been much volatility. In this situation, many people think that if negative news doesn’t drop it must be about to rise, and that the sideways action is an upward continuation pattern. Now, after probing down from the highs, there is a dense cluster of trapped sell orders overhead, and altcoins also aren’t showing much. This trend looks more like a distribution/exit pattern amid sideways trading.

The 4-hour chart candlestick pattern shows range-bound volatility. The recent daily highs confirm resistance pressure near the previous high area. The latest two 4-hour candles are slightly up but with relatively small bodies, indicating that the market is entering a consolidation tone above 1,800, with relatively balanced bull and bear strength. Technical indicators: on the 4-hour chart, the MACD DIF line and DEA line are both running above the zero axis; the DIF line shows a downward turning trend, suggesting that short-term upward momentum is weakening. In addition, trading volume has noticeably contracted—especially the most recent volume, which is far lower than the volumes of the prior candles. This diverges from the slight price rise, so be alert to weak short-term upside and the possibility of entering a range-bound consolidation phase.

Evening trading suggestions: For Bitcoin, short around 64,100, add to the short at 65,000, target around 62,000; for Ethereum, short around 1,810, add to the short at 1,835, target around 1,740. Sun-zhong 65,600 and 1,860.

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