$XAUT Gold closed last week with a somewhat mixed picture, so it's useful to consider the following scenario in conjunction with actual price data.

On Friday, gold calmed around $4,100, finishing the week down about 1.5%, which paints a slightly different picture than a "strong bull close," but it's also true that it managed to stay above the $4,080 level. On Monday, the price did indeed rise to $4,200, then fell sharply to around $4,145, which aligns with the liquidity-hunting scenario at the beginning of the week.

This picture needs to be read in conjunction with the macroeconomic background. US-Iran tensions escalated throughout the week, with a two-day wave of attacks on Iran followed by reciprocal retaliations, driving up oil prices and reviving inflation concerns, which strengthened expectations that the Fed may keep its policy rate tight for longer. The market is currently pricing in a probability of a rate hike in September at over sixty percent. This type of environment normally creates two different effects for gold: both supportive and limiting. Geopolitical risk increases demand for safe-haven assets, while expectations of high interest rates put pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset.

The psychological reading presented – that is, the fact that many traders opened new short positions last week after the rejection around $4,200, relying on the low-high structure, and that the stop-loss levels of these positions accumulated above $4,200 – is a logical liquidity map from a technical perspective. Some analysts also argue that a clear bearish trend is still continuing on the weekly and daily charts, and that the rejection from the $4,200-$4,190 resistance is a highly probable signal of further downward movement, showing that the above optimistic scenario is not the only view.

The key data flow for this week is clear: the June CPI data on July 14th, the PPI and Fed Beige Book on July 15th, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims on July 16th, and Michigan inflation expectations on July 17th. This data overload makes high volatility in gold this week almost inevitable, creating an environment where both an upward breakout and a downward continuation scenario are simultaneously possible.

For those tracking gold and related assets like XAUT through Gate, the real practical approach is to watch whether the $4,078-$4,116 support zone holds; a break below this level would invalidate the optimistic scenario above. However, given the heavy flow of macroeconomic data this week, it would be a healthier approach from a risk management perspective to treat any technical scenario as a possibility awaiting data confirmation, rather than a definitive outcome.

⚠️ Not financial advice.
DYOR 🔍

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