Bitcoin is currently around $63,974, slightly negative on a daily basis, and the consolidation in the $63,000-$64,000 range is indeed an accurate assessment. Last week, following the second wave of US strikes targeting approximately ninety Iranian targets, the price fell to $61,688, with the VIX index rising 4.77% to 16.90. Ethereum is around $1,805; technically, the risk of a pullback remains unless a sustained breakout above $1,850 occurs. ETH is currently seeing consecutive positive ETF inflows for the fifth day, with Fidelity's FETH alone attracting the majority of these inflows.

$BTC
Bitcoin underwent a full-blown geopolitical stress test this weekend, and the result presented an interesting picture that actually shows the market is maturing.

Following the third round of US attacks on Iran and Tehran's announcement that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz "until further notice," the bitcoin price experienced sharp but short-lived movements between approximately $61,200 and $64,700 over the past week. On Saturday, the price remained calm around $63,800, with only a 0.3% daily decline and a 2% weekly gain. But from Sunday night to Monday, tensions rose again, with Iran effectively closing the strait after firing warning shots at a ship using an unauthorized route, pushing bitcoin down to $61,688 and causing the VIX index to rise 4.77% to 16.90.

The main message of the last few days is that geopolitical risk is no longer reflected in every headline, but primarily in the crypto market through oil and inflation expectations. The total crypto market capitalization is currently between $2.2 and $2.28 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance slightly rising to around 58.44%, indicating a slight shift from altcoins towards Bitcoin's relative safety. 24-hour trading volume has significantly decreased compared to previous weeks, suggesting a cautious liquidity stance, while the fear and greed index remains in the fear zone.

The ETF side forms a separate and important channel. After eight weeks of uninterrupted outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs reached a three-day positive streak last Tuesday, but these inflows remained very modest, only $21.44 million on Tuesday, not strong enough to support the price compared to the outflows of previous weeks. There's also a notable development on the leveraged positions side: liquidations have fallen by over 94% in 24 hours to $6.51 million, indicating that heavily leveraged short positions have been largely cleared.

There are three concrete signals to watch in the coming days. First, while markets were closed over the weekend, oil opened on Monday. Brent closed 5.2% higher on Wednesday at $78.02, even reaching $80 intraday. Whether this level will be maintained or rise further is critical. Second, the course of the conflict, news of new attacks or diplomatic developments, can quickly affect leveraged positions. Third, the US June CPI data on July 14th. If this figure comes in cold, it could pave the way for Bitcoin to move towards the $65,000-$67,000 resistance zone; if it comes in hot, it could revive hawkish Fed fears and push the price back to the $62,000 support zone.

For those following Bitcoin through Gate, the key point is that the current situation is a fragile balance between macroeconomic fears and technical support. The $61,000 to $61,376 range stands out as a critical threshold as it coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Holding this level makes a recovery towards $63,000 possible, while a break below it could bring about a decline to $59,780. Currently, Bitcoin's movement depends more on how oil prices and interest rate expectations change than on individual headlines, so what's really to watch in the coming days is not the headlines, but how these macroeconomic and market channels react.

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