Serenity: Institutions begin repricing the humanoid robotics business; China-based manufacturers’ overall capacity may reach 100k units by the end of the year

ME News message, July 12 (UTC+8): “White Hair Stock God” Serenity posted on X, pointing out that an industry-chain report on Boston Dynamics released last month by IBK Research shows that Boston Dynamics plans to be able to reach annual production capacity of 30,000 units only by 2028, while overall production capacity for Chinese robot manufacturers is expected to reach 100,000 units by the end of 2026, which may lead institutions to begin repricing the humanoid robot business.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the US camp includes Tesla, Figure, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics, while Boston Dynamics is controlled by Hyundai Motor Group; China’s main manufacturers include Unitree Technology, Fourier Intelligence, ZhiYuan Robotics, UBTech, and XPeng Robotics; European companies include Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, and Oversonic.

In addition, IBK Research expects Atlas shipments to reach 11,290 units in 2028, and then increase to 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 units in 2029 through 2032, respectively. However, Serenity casts doubt on this linear growth model, saying that the actual ramp-up curve is more likely to follow an S-shaped growth pattern, with shipments potentially reaching between 15,000 and 20,000 units in 2028, rising to between 40,000 and 70,000 units in 2029, and further climbing to between 90,000 and 140,000 units in 2030. (Source: ODAILY)