The most important data to watch yesterday was CPI. After the U.S.-Iran negotiation milestone and the Fed meeting minutes, CPI was the final piece of the puzzle for July rate-hike expectations. A 34.7% probability of a rate hike—one number can push it up or bring it down. Today’s market positioning is largely the subsequent repricing around that figure. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, the momentum in U.S. stocks that has been pressing toward historical highs could hit a wall.

American Bitcoin officially listed yesterday, but what’s even more worth discussing is the precedent it set. The Trump family holds positions in the crypto market, and as president, Trump has direct influence over crypto regulatory policy—this interest chain will keep fermenting amid criticism in Washington. In the short term, the market may treat it as a positive catalyst; in the long run, this compliance risk will become a variable hanging over the crypto industry.

SK hynix (SKHY) today transitioned to a formal trading code with normalized trading; on the first day, ADR rose 12.76%. The more interesting question is: out of the subscription funds worth 170 billion yuan that got squeezed out, how much will chase bids in today’s secondary market? Crowding levels and trading activity will both be key to today’s open. The CEO said the memory shortage will persist beyond 2030. If today’s price action is weak, that line becomes a short-target in the market’s back-and-forth.

In the crypto space, BTC has been grinding in an extreme fear range for a while now. Three institutions offered three completely different bottom calls: Glassnode says it’s not there yet, CryptoQuant says it’s a bear-market rebound, and Bitwise says it’s the most mild bear market in history. But the newest variable most worth watching right now is the pace of stablecoin inflows. USDT on TRON broke above 90 billion, indicating that OTC funds have not really left—they’re just waiting. Waiting for what is unclear, but the money is there.

On current affairs: the U.S.-Iran negotiation yesterday was the first validation point. Whether the past two weeks’ surge in crude oil turns into a bearish window—some answers can be seen today.

DYOR. Not investment advice.