July 12 ETH

Last night, ETH briefly surged higher, then fell sharply again in the morning due to a sudden development in the news cycle.

On the fundamentals, at 7:50 a.m., news emerged that the U.S. military said it has begun the third round of strikes against Iran within a week, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran struck U.S. targets in the Middle East. With fighting between the two sides flaring up again, the market has once more become uncertain. Stay cautious against conflicts easing again and entering a new round of negotiations.

Technically, the 4-hour chart has held above the 1808 resistance level. In the morning, influenced by the news, price slipped back below the 1808 resistance; the upward move is temporarily paused, and the market has entered a range-bound consolidation and adjustment mode. On the hourly chart, the market is currently in a pullback and adjustment phase but has not yet entered a bearish trend. The main trading range is 1832-1789.

In terms of today’s trading, we continue to follow the range-bound upward outlook. Use 1789 as the long/short boundary: if price revisits and does not break below it, a reversal-to-the-upside signal may form—then you can still go long, with a stop loss below 1780. Alternatively, go long on a breakout above 1831, with a stop loss below 1800; targets are 1848 and 1900. For bearish signals, price needs to break below 1789; and on the downside, there’s only room to about 1757—whether to take shorts or not is optional. For the specific trading plan, the evening livestream will explain it!