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🔥BTC and the July effect: Price-up history supports it
July is one of the best months for BTC, with average returns of ~7.5-8%, a median of ~8%, and green closes in 11/15 of the most recent years
In particular, July stays green even in bear markets: +21% in 2018, +17.7% in 2022—both after very red June months
The 2026 scenario is repeating that structure: June fell 20.5% (the worst month of the year), BTC formed a bear-market bottom at $57.7K at the end of June, then rebounded ~11% to the $63-64K zone.
If it repeats the 17-21% gain from 2018/2022 from the current level, BTC would return to $73.5-76K
The cycle effect of $BTC is a weak signal with a sample of only a little over 10 years, and there is no causal mechanism; and July being green for most of the time is largely the result of June often being a distribution month. Realized P&L has just touched -0.35, the lowest in 43 months—the same figure that previously marked cycle bottoms in December 2022 (post-FTX), 2019, and 2015.