BTC next week long-line outlook | Plan 7.13-7.17

Overall weekly chart remains weak; the long-term strategy is mainly high-sell (sell at resistance) along the trend. Any pullback is a trap and a repair move—never bottom-fish against the trend on the long-term.

This week’s review
This week’s price action kept facing pressure with choppy consolidation. Multiple rebounds surged to higher levels but were repeatedly hit by large sell pressure. The weekly candle closed as a bearish long upper wick, and bullish momentum kept drying up. Huge amounts of trapped liquidity piled up overhead; every small rebound lacked the strength to continue higher. The shorting rhythm for the larger cycle has fully taken shape.

Market/Trend analysis
On the macro level, risk appetite keeps cooling down. Weakness in the US stock tech sector continues to weigh on the crypto market. In-market incremental capital has dried up; only a small rebound driven by short-term sentiment is visible, with no long-term capital inflow to prop things up. The weekly MACD dead cross keeps diverging, with the highs continuously trending lower. Rebound room has already topped out. Next week, the short-side momentum will be concentrated and released, and the long-term downside space is completely opened.

Long-term layout idea
Long-term positions to be built in batches in the range: 63,800–64,500
Long-term defensive level: 65,100
First long-term target: 60,500–59,800
Second long-term target: 56,800–55,900

Long-term position logic: When the rebound reaches the pressure zone, build long positions in batches at that area. For the medium-term target, reduce half to lock in profits; hold the remaining core position for the long-term and watch for deeper downside.
Get the large-cycle rhythm straight in advance: rebounds that lure buyers at high levels are never a reason to blindly bottom-fish long-term. If you understand the long-term trend, next week’s swing profits can be steadily secured.
Don’t wait for the big drop to confirm before you realize the long-term bearish layout.
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