$HYPE This all checks out well, and the fundamentals are genuinely strong. HYPE's cumulative protocol revenue crossed $1 billion on June 30, with roughly 97-99 percent of fees routing straight into open-market buybacks, over 41 million tokens worth more than $1 billion already burned. The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index inclusion is confirmed too, dated July 9, giving HYPE roughly a 0.95 percent weight and replacing Polkadot in that fund, alongside three dedicated spot HYPE ETFs now running with combined inflows north of $170 million.

I'd lean toward the consolidation-first scenario rather than an immediate retest of $75. Here's why: HYPE has been forming what several chart services describe as a cup-and-handle structure since the June 16 all-time high near $76.70, dipped to the low $50s in late June, and has spent the past couple weeks pressing against a contracting triangle just under $72-76 rather than breaking it cleanly. Multiple technical writeups treat a daily close above roughly $76-77 as the actual confirmation trigger for fresh price discovery, not just touching the level intraday. Below that, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $63.66 has already acted as support once, and each pullback since the June correction has been shallower than the last, which does support your read that structure remains constructive.

The complication working against an immediate breakout is supply. A 9.92 million token unlock landed July 6, worth roughly $630-645 million, and while the buyback fund is large enough to have absorbed similar tranches before, roughly 1.2 million HYPE per month continues flowing to insiders on an ongoing basis. That's a real headwind the buyback has to keep outrunning, and it's part of why forecasts on this token span such an enormous range, from the high $30s on the cautious end to $150+ on Arthur Hayes' bull case, depending almost entirely on whether buyback demand keeps outpacing unlock supply.

Given that, I'd frame the more likely near-term path as a period of consolidation testing the $60-67 zone first, rather than a straight run at $75, simply because the token hasn't yet produced the clean breakout and retest pattern that would typically confirm a move into new highs. That said, the calm funding rate and long-leaning ratio you flagged suggest there's no immediate overheating that would force a sharp reversal either, so a grind higher through consolidation seems more probable than a hard breakdown below 60 as long as the buyback and ETF inflow trends hold.

⚠️ Not financial advice.