BTC & ETH (7.13–7.17) long-term positioning ideas｜Poetry Yuan’s views

The long-term cycle bottom power buildup has already been completed. Various macro tailwinds have been landing and getting realized in sequence. Going forward, the overall approach should mainly focus on buying dips for long-term longs. Every round of short-term pullback is a boarding window for long-term coins; never chase after big spikes at high levels or follow the crowd.

Message-side tailwinds breakdown:
1. U.S. inflation data is gradually weakening. Rate-cut expectations are being continuously reinforced in the second half. Liquidity in the U.S. dollar is set to become looser, which will provide additional funding support for the entire crypto market.
2. The phase of sustained outflows from the BTC ETF has ended. Major institutional capital is now accumulating in batches at low levels. The sell pressure brought by the halving has already been fully digested, and the market’s scarcity of available supply is gradually becoming more pronounced.
3. ETH is steadily expanding thanks to the RWA ecosystem. The burn-and-earn/quality-and-stake mechanism keeps shrinking circulating supply. The sector fundamentals are solid and have long-term value support.

Review of the 🍜 chart:
The recent pullback and adjustment is merely a shakeout action by the main force. On the weekly timeframe, key support has been firmly held. Bear momentum has basically been exhausted, and a bottom formation has already been completed.

Market interpretation:
Short-term market negative sentiment has basically been digested, and disruptions from external price action are limited. A triple tailwind—macro liquidity, institutional fund positioning, and sector narrative catalysts—has formed a resonance. Short-term mild choppiness cannot change the long-term upward trend. The current pullback window is extremely rare.

Long-term long order placement plan:
BTC
Entry range: 62,700–63,300
Risk control and defense level: 61,900
First-stage target: 65,500–67,200
Long-term ultimate target: 70,000

ETH
Entry range: 1,740–1,765
Risk control and defense level: 1,700
First-stage target: 1,830–1,880
Long-term ultimate target: 1,960

Holding execution Silk Road:
Rely on pullbacks on the chart to build positions in batches. Strictly follow the defense points, patiently hold and realize the long-term targets, and don’t let short-term noise affect the planned positioning. $BTC $ETH