Analysis: Bitcoin rose nearly 10% in July, marking the best start in four years, but the market still fears an August selloff or a repeat of the 2022 bear market.

ME News update, July 11 (UTC+8). Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a cumulative gain of nearly 10% since July, achieving the best performance for the same period in nearly four years, multiple market analysts have warned that the current trend is highly similar to the 2022 bear market period, and that the market may weaken again starting in August. Data shows that so far this month, BTC/USD is up by about 9.5%. Looking back to 2022, Bitcoin rebounded nearly 17% in July, but then fell by about 14% and 3% in August and September, respectively, dashing expectations that the bull market would continue.

Daan Crypto Trades said that Bitcoin is currently broadly in line with the historical average for July, but the third quarter is traditionally one of Bitcoin’s weakest quarters, with an average gain of only about 6%. He believes that declining summer market liquidity and lower trading volume are important reasons behind the weak performance in the third quarter. Daan Crypto Trades further noted that real market volatility may arrive in the fourth quarter, when Bitcoin’s price could see larger two-way swings. Meanwhile, several on-chain indicators have recently issued the first bear-market bottom signals in four years, but overall market demand is still showing only limited signs of recovery.

Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin’s price action in 2026 has a high degree of similarity to previous bear-market cycles. If history repeats, Bitcoin may continue the summer rebound through the second half of July, before entering a new round of adjustment. For short-term targets, multiple traders view $70,000 as an important range for this rebound. Some market participants expect Bitcoin’s price to peak in the $67,000 to $73,000 range, and judge that “July is strong, August turns weak, until it bottoms out in the fourth quarter.” (Source: PANews)