7.11 Bitcoin market analysis

Bitcoin is currently around 64,000, and it is in a B-wave sideways upward cycle. This level carries significant risk; the key is whether the mid-range consolidation has finished. If the consolidation has completed and an uptrend has started, then subsequent higher highs are possible, but after the spike there will still be a pullback. After the pullback, the uptrend would continue. If it cannot make a new high, then the range-bound phase is not finished yet and one more C-wave dip is still needed, with potentially significant depth.

Ethereum faces a similar situation, having formed a downward ABC structure after moving off the prior high. If the current point is the ending point, then one more thrust is missing to form a smaller time-frame upward structure; afterward, there would be a retracement before moving higher again. If this is instead the high point, it may only be the A-wave so far—what follows would be the B-wave rebound, and later a deeper retracement is needed. Before the structure is confirmed, chasing longs carries greater risk.

In terms of trading, if Bitcoin makes a new high and then retraces into the key range, you could consider entering to look for a bullish move; if it cannot make a new high, then wait for the deeper retracement before planning. Ethereum also needs to wait for structure confirmation to avoid a C-wave selloff after a B-wave rebound. Other coins have already risen significantly; it’s better to wait for a pullback before participating. Overall, the priority is risk control—stay patient and wait for clear signals.