In June 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth remained in moderate increase, while the PPI year-on-year growth rate saw a slight expansion.

June 2026 CPI year-on-year stays on a mild uptrend
PPI year-on-year increase widens slightly

——Interpretation of June 2026 CPI and PPI data by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics

In June, affected by seasonal factors and fluctuations in international market prices, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% month-on-month and rose 1.0% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, continuing the mild uptrend. Demand increased in parts of domestic industries, but affected by factors such as the decline in international crude oil prices, the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.3% month-on-month and rose 4.1% year-on-year.

I. CPI maintains a mild uptrend

On a month-on-month basis, the nationwide CPI fell 0.3%. Affected by fluctuations in international market prices, the prices of domestic gold jewelry and gasoline fell 8.7% and 4.9%, respectively; the respective decline rates widened by 5.9 and 4.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. Combined, this affected CPI by about a 0.22 percentage-point drop month-on-month; compared with the previous month, the downward drag on CPI increased by about 0.19 percentage points. Food prices fell 0.4%, with the same decline as the previous month, affecting CPI by about a 0.07 percentage-point drop month-on-month. Within food, with a large supply of seasonal fruits and vegetables hitting the market, market supply was sufficient; fresh vegetable and fresh fruit prices fell 1.0% and 2.0%, respectively, combined affecting CPI by about a 0.06 percentage-point drop month-on-month. Pork and aquatic product prices fell 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, combined affecting CPI by about a 0.02 percentage-point drop month-on-month. The stock of laying hens remained low, and combined with a decline in egg-laying rates due to high temperatures, egg prices rose 7.0%, affecting CPI by about a 0.03 percentage-point increase month-on-month. Service prices changed from a 0.1% decline last month to being flat. Within services, affected by airlines lowering fuel surcharges and some decline in travel demand during off-season, the prices for hotel accommodation, air tickets, and travel agency fees fell 5.3%, 4.0%, and 0.7%, respectively, combined affecting CPI by about a 0.04 percentage-point drop month-on-month. Affected by policy-based price adjustments in some regions, the national medical service prices rose 0.3%, affecting CPI by about a 0.02 percentage-point increase month-on-month.

On a year-on-year basis, the nationwide CPI rose 1.0%, with the growth rate down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. International imported factors, among others, drove a slowdown in the year-on-year growth of domestic industrial consumer goods prices. Industrial consumer goods prices rose 2.9%, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, contributing about 0.90 percentage points to the year-on-year rise in CPI. The upward pull on CPI was down about 0.28 percentage points compared with the previous month. Within industrial consumer goods, the year-on-year growth rates of gold jewelry and gasoline prices fell to 28.1% and 17.0%, respectively; combined, they contributed about 0.60 percentage points to CPI’s year-on-year rise, and the upward pull on CPI was down about 0.23 percentage points compared with the previous month. Personal care products and household appliance prices rose 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively, with both growth rates declining. Service prices rose 0.8%, unchanged from the previous month, contributing about 0.40 percentage points to CPI’s year-on-year rise. Within services, medical services and education services prices rose 3.4% and 0.6%, respectively; housekeeping services and meals eaten out rose 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Overall, the growth rates remained stable. Food prices fell 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, contributing about a 0.28 percentage-point drop to CPI year-on-year. Within food, pork prices fell 15.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about a 0.30 percentage-point drop to CPI year-on-year. The price declines for fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, grains, edible oils, dairy products, and aquatic products were between 0.3% and 1.7%. Egg prices rose 20.0%, with the growth rate widening by 11.6 percentage points from the previous month. Lamb, beef, and poultry meat prices rose between 1.4% and 6.0%.

II. PPI year-on-year increase widens slightly

On a month-on-month basis, the nationwide PPI fell 0.3%. The main features of PPI month-on-month movement this month are: first, international crude oil prices declined, lowering prices in related domestic industries. Prices for oil and gas extraction fell 16.0% month-on-month, and prices for refined petroleum product manufacturing fell 3.1%; the decline rates widened by 14.2 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively, compared with the previous month. In chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and in chemical fiber manufacturing, prices turned from rising last month to falling by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively. Second, affected by seasonal factors, price movements diverged across some industries. In June, as temperatures rose, demand for coal preparation for “summer peak shaving” and for refrigeration products increased; prices for coal mining and washing rose 5.6% month-on-month, household refrigeration appliance manufacturing prices rose 0.6%, and refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment manufacturing prices rose 0.4%. With sufficient summer precipitation, sunlight, and wind, hydropower, solar power, and wind power prices fell 9.1%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, respectively. Third, accelerated industrial upgrading boosted demand in some industries, pushing prices upward. As the coverage of artificial intelligence in applications continues to expand, new raw materials and new materials are widely used, and green transformation is continuously promoted, virtual reality equipment manufacturing prices rose 8.4% month-on-month; wearable intelligent device manufacturing prices rose 3.4%; industrial control computers and systems manufacturing prices rose 3.3%; and industrial robot manufacturing prices rose 0.5%. Prices also rose for electronic specialty materials manufacturing (+2.5%), carbon-based nanomaterials (+1.9%), and biomass fuel processing (+1.2%), while prices for comprehensive utilization of waste resources rose 0.4%.

On a year-on-year basis, the nationwide PPI rose 4.1%, with the growth rate widening by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among industries with rising prices, coal mining and washing rose 20.6%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose 5.1%, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing rose 3.3%, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling-processing industries rose 3.1%. Their growth rates widened on average compared with the previous month; the combined impact of these four industries was about a 1.39 percentage-point increase in PPI year-on-year. Non-ferrous metal mineral mining and processing and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling-processing rose 25.5% and 23.4%, respectively. Oil and natural gas extraction, oil, coal, and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing rose 16.8%, 16.7%, and 11.3%, respectively. Their growth rates fell on average compared with the previous month; the combined impact of these five industries was about a 3.25 percentage-point increase in PPI year-on-year. Among industries with falling prices, non-metallic mineral products fell 4.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The electric power, heat production and supply industry fell 4.4%, with the decline unchanged from the previous month. Beverage and refined tea manufacturing and automobile manufacturing fell 5.3% and 2.1%, respectively; their declines widened by 3.4 and 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, respectively. The combined impact of these four industries was about a 0.72 percentage-point decline in PPI year-on-year.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            CPI
                                                            PPI