CoinShares: Bitcoin is facing three major pressures, and the market is in a fragile bottoming phase

ME News, July 11 (UTC+8): CoinShares released its latest report, saying Bitcoin is facing three major pressures—hawkish positions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, heightened uncertainty over the Iran situation, and setbacks in the progress of the “Clarity Act.” The June FOMC meeting minutes show the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but removed dovish language; risks of a rate hike still exist in September, with core PCE inflation at 3.3% in April and expected to be 3.4% in May. The fragility of the Iran ceasefire agreement has intensified geopolitical pressure, making Bitcoin more inclined to trade like a macro asset.

Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows for eight consecutive weeks totaling about $8 billion, setting a record, but inflows have already appeared over the past three trading days, suggesting the market may be nearing a capitulation phase. Strategy’s holdings account for about 4% of the total supply. When it first sold 32 BTC, the market reaction was intense, but when it sold 3,588 BTC in early July, the market absorbed it smoothly, and the marginal impact has since sharply diminished. The “Clarity Act” lacks momentum for a full-chamber vote, with key disputes still unresolved. Market odds for approval have fallen from 74% about a month ago to around 48%. Overall, the market is still under pressure but has not broken down, and is in a fragile basing stage. (Source: PANews)