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Quantum computers can crack 15-digit ECC keys; there is no threat to Bitcoin’s 256-bit security yet, but migration countdown is accelerating

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ME News message: On April 25 (UTC+8), Project Eleven today awarded the Q-Day prize to researcher Giancarlo Lelli. By using publicly accessible quantum hardware, he successfully derived a 15-digit elliptic-curve private key from a public key, marking the largest publicly documented demonstration of its kind to date—512 times higher than the 6-digit demonstration in September 2025. Lelli used a variant of Shor’s algorithm for the elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem, which is the mathematical foundation of the Bitcoin signature scheme. The awarded hardware had about 70 qubits. At present, no known quantum computer can crack real Bitcoin wallets, and Bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic-curve security still far exceeds today’s quantum capabilities. Worth noting, on March 31 Google lowered its ECDLP-256 resource estimates and set a migration target for quantum cryptography after 2029; Cloudflare immediately followed suit, and the UK’s NCSC also set migration milestones from 2028 to 2035. On-chain data shows that currently about 6.93 million BTC face potential quantum risk because their public keys have been exposed. The Bitcoin community has put forward proposals BIP 360 and BIP 361 to promote migration to quantum-resistant output types, but the biggest challenge remains coordinating a decentralized network. (Source: ChainCatcher)
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