This morning’s market action: last night I tried to push through 64680 but it didn’t get past; in the early hours it was pushed back again around 63600. It’s only managed to return to the 64,000 midline for now. It looks like a candle with a lower wick has formed, but honestly, this net inflow of $329 million looks intimidating—yet the position size is already over $6.6 billion. This incremental capital is really only enough to throw into the water; it isn’t the kind of sustained, heavy, active buying. More like hedging funds coming in to take a spot—so don’t assume it’s going to take off just because you see inflows.

Right now price is just ranging around 63,600–64,680. It can’t really fall, can’t really rise—classic garbage-time chop. Above, the 64,500–64,800 area: the 4-hour moving average is in a dead cross and pressing down, and the daily-level prior trendline has also just broken and then bounced back into this zone. Shorting here has good risk-reward. Below: if 63,600 breaks again, 63,000 will most likely be tested.

On indicators: the 4-hour RSI has just climbed back to around 40 from oversold. MACD is still hanging under the zero line, and the bearish momentum histogram hasn’t fully shrunk yet—so the rebound strength is weak. Funding rate is only 0.0079%, basically nothing. Bulls have no cost advantage; bears have no pressure. This ambiguous phase is exactly when it’s easiest to lure longs.

Also tonight the US has an inflation data release. The market is highly divided right now, and before the data, big funds don’t dare move recklessly—so rebound height is limited. In plain terms: before the data lands, it’s just consolidation. Don’t expect a direct V-reversal, and don’t chase longs from this level.

Recommendations:
Short one position lightly around 64,000 for now. Take a more steady approach and add only when it’s back in the 64,500–64,800 range. Stop-loss above 65,200. Targets: start with 63,600; if it breaks, hold and look at 63,000.
#预测世界杯西班牙VS比利时