#BTC Bitcoin bottoms and bounces, but capital is leaving

Bitcoin $64,302, Ethereum $1,785. In the past 24 hours, one rose 2.3% and the other rose 1.9%. The move isn’t large, but given the cumulative gain of 4.34% over the past week and the current position being at 91% within its range, prices have already climbed back up quite a bit from the lows. The market’s status is written as “bottoming and rebounding,” but the Fear and Greed Index is only 22. Readings like this usually correspond to the day of a major sell-off, not a rebound day—prices are moving up, while people’s hearts are still at rock bottom. This mismatch is the most critical point today.

Where does this mismatch come from?

First, look at where the money is going. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling $4 billion in June. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way, with funds shifting toward opportunities such as AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. East time zone also ended five consecutive days of net inflows on July 9. One day recorded outflows of $52.08 million; Fidelity’s FETH had net outflows of $33.96 million, while BlackRock’s ETHA had net outflows of $12.67 million. ETFs are the easiest channel for institutions to enter the crypto market. If they’re selling, it means large capital’s risk appetite hasn’t come back—not because they think crypto will crash, but because elsewhere is more attractive, or more precisely, crypto’s “story” hasn’t yet beaten out everyone else’s.

But why can prices still rise? One direct reason is that pressure from the leverage side has eased. Within 24 hours, the amount liquidated via forced position closures increased by 10.96% compared with the previous day, with an absolute value close to $200 million. It sounds scary, but compared with the panic of previous cascade liquidations, this level of clearing can’t produce a waterfall sell-off anymore. Shorts can’t smash it down, and longs don’t dare to chase. Both sides stalemate, and the price gradually “creeps” upward while grinding near the lows.

A more hidden force comes from on-chain: according to Lookonchain monitoring based on that day’s data collection, a wallet allegedly under Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought 20.5k ETH from Galaxy Digital, worth $35.92 million. This isn’t a size that retail investors can move—suggesting someone is picking up chips while prices are cheap.

The macro environment also provides a bit of breathing room. CME’s “FedWatch” shows the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points by September is 51.1%. The tightening rope hasn’t loosened, but at least it isn’t squeezing any harder. The market doesn’t need to worry about a “sudden additional hike.” On the other side, Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended; within 48 hours, the U.S. military struck at least 170 military targets, and Iran retaliated against U.S. military bases. There’s also division within the Republican Party: hawks support continuing military action, while some Republicans warn that rising oil prices will weaken voter support. These concerns will constrain the room to escalate military action, and geopolitical risk is temporarily sealed in a controllable box.

So today’s situation is: the downside momentum is being absorbed, but upside confidence hasn’t been built up yet. Institutions split between retreating and picking up chips; retail traders watch the rebound but don’t dare to believe it. Their fingers hover above the keyboard. Going forward, it will most likely continue to grind—until ETF outflows slow down, or until the amount accumulated on-chain is enough to draw attention, and then the direction will gradually become clear. #ETH