Will ETH see a “golden July”? Institutions and supply-demand dynamics could become new catalysts, pushing Ethereum into a “new cycle”

Odaily星球日报讯 Sharplink’s research director Steven Ehrlich said in a post on X that Ethereum (ETH) has started July 2026 strongly, with a gain of about 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests investors should pay attention to ETH’s July performance. Over the past 10 years, ETH has had four Julys with positive returns, and the average gain across those four months reached 43%. Since 2020, July has also been ETH’s strongest month, with an average return of about 27%, outperforming other months.

The core advantage of ETH’s July rally is not just volatility, but the asymmetry between upside and downside: when July is an up month, the average gain is about 43%; while in down years, the average drawdown is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025). Historically, strong July performance for ETH has often come alongside Ethereum-specific catalysts:

July 2020: Up 54%. “DeFi Summer” kicked off; Compound launched the COMP token, sparking a yield-farming boom. DeFi total value locked (TVL) grew from about $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, and DEX monthly trading volume rose 174%, benefiting ETH as DeFi infrastructure.

July 2022: Up 58%. The Ethereum Merge upgrade timeline was set on July 14. Market sentiment rebounded from the lows after the LUNA and 3AC crises, and about $337 million worth of short positions were liquidated within three days.

July 2025: Up 49%. The U.S. “GENIUS Act” was signed, and spot ETH ETF monthly inflows hit a record high of about $5.4 billion. At the same time, corporate funds accelerated their allocation to ETH, with a staking rate of about 30% and falling exchange balances driving supply tightness.

ETH’s historical big-up months are typically driven by a combination of “Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalance.” For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment may present similar opportunities:

1、Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional have recently launched efforts aimed at bringing institutions into on-chain ecosystems, with Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin among the participants.

2、Ethereum’s roadmap continues to advance. On July 4, Vitalik Buterin proposed the “Lean Ethereum” plan, aiming to simplify the Ethereum architecture, improve speed, and enhance post-quantum security over the next 3 to 4 years, with its significance comparable to The Merge.

3、Businesses continue to accumulate ETH. Digital asset reserve companies are still actively building up ETH. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, added 10k ETH in the past week, and said its goal is to increase the amount of ETH corresponding to each share.

Steven Ehrlich said that Ethereum is entering a new stage of development, and that institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and fund allocation may become important factors driving the ETH market.