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- Technical Analysis: It is still too early to determine the bottom:
Bitcoin continues its modest recovery, reclaiming the $64,000 level on Friday after rebounding 6.84% in the previous week. Bitcoin is finding support around the 200-week simple moving average at $62,874, after finding support around the ascending trend line (formed by connecting multiple lows since January 2023) in the previous week.
If the 200-week simple moving average at $62,874 holds as support, Bitcoin’s price could extend toward the 78.60% Fibonacci correction level at $65,520 (from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,199).
Momentum indicators on the weekly chart point to signs of improvement: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 39, and the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is improving as downside momentum loses strength.
However, if Bitcoin’s price correction continues and it closes below the 200-week simple moving average at $62,874, the decline may extend toward trend line support at around $58,000.
Weekly chart of the BTC/USDT pair
On the daily chart, the crypto king maintains a limited tone, as it remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), all of which are above the market level and continue to form a medium-range bearish trend that is still dominant.
Bitcoin’s price is hovering above the horizontal support level at about $64,004. Meanwhile, a slightly positive RSI near 53 and a bullish MACD reading above zero indicate renewed momentum that has not yet surpassed the prevailing supply level.
On the upside, initial resistance appears at the 50-day EMA near $65,413, with other barriers at the 100-day EMA near $69,000 and the 200-day EMA near $75,029, before a stronger horizontal ceiling at $84,410.
On the downside, immediate support comes at the horizontal level around $64,004; a sustained break below this level would expose the key psychological level of $60,000 on the chart as a potential demand zone.
$BTC
Institutional demand saw a slight rebound during the first two days of this week, after weeks of outflows. However, SoSoValue data later in the week showed that Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF funds recorded two days of outflows, bringing net flows to $106.96 million by Thursday, representing a modest improvement. If positive flows continue on Friday, Bitcoin will break through the eighth consecutive week of steady withdrawals. This is an early signal of recovering institutional demand, which could lead to higher prices.
Daily chart of net Bitcoin spot inflows to ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
Weekly chart of net Bitcoin spot inflows to ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
The Federal Reserve places cautious constraints on Bitcoin
On the macroeconomic front, this week published minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 16–17, which revealed a split among policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates. The minutes showed increasing concerns among Federal Reserve officials about inflation, while worries about the labor market eased slightly.
After the release of the data, swap traders now expect an approximately 21.9% probability of a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The cautious expectations for monetary policy kept investors neutral, limiting demand for high-risk assets, and Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound so far this week.
$BTC