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- The momentum among institutional investors:
Institutional demand saw a slight rebound during the first two days of this week, after weeks of outflows. However, SoSoValue data later in the week showed that Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF funds recorded two days of outflows, bringing net flows to $106.96 million by Thursday, representing a modest improvement. If positive flows continue on Friday, Bitcoin will break through the eighth consecutive week of steady withdrawals. This is an early signal of recovering institutional demand, which could lead to higher prices.
Daily chart of net Bitcoin spot inflows to ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
Weekly chart of net Bitcoin spot inflows to ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
The Federal Reserve places cautious constraints on Bitcoin
On the macroeconomic front, this week published minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 16–17, which revealed a split among policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates. The minutes showed increasing concerns among Federal Reserve officials about inflation, while worries about the labor market eased slightly.
After the release of the data, swap traders now expect an approximately 21.9% probability of a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The cautious expectations for monetary policy kept investors neutral, limiting demand for high-risk assets, and Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound so far this week.
$BTC
On Monday, Strategies announced that it had sold 3,588 Bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividend distributions on the “Digital Credit” platform. The news initially weighed negatively on the Bitcoin price, which fell by about 4%. However, “King of Digital Coins” recovered and closed Monday with slight gains, suggesting that the selling pressure has largely been absorbed.
On Tuesday, the “Crypto Finance” website reported that transactions of this size are typically executed over-the-counter (OTC) and are covered by extensive hedges long before they are made public. By the time the market receives the announcement, the underlying exposure has already been absorbed.
The report also noted that Bitcoin’s high liquidity allows it to absorb large transactions without causing major market disruption, which helps explain the short-term price correction.
In an exclusive interview, Dan Chen, an analyst at Bitunix Exchange, told FXStreet: “Strategy has not weakened the Bitcoin treasury model, but contributed to its maturation. Selling part of its holdings was not a sign of lost confidence, but evidence that Bitcoin can function as a liquid treasury asset for companies.”
Even so, Chen remains cautiously bearish on Bitcoin in the near term, pointing to rising U.S. Treasury yields and improved stock returns. Investments and initial public offerings related to artificial intelligence are still offering better returns, while institutional flows remain weak despite a slight improvement in demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. He believes the broader Bitcoin trend will depend on whether global investors increase their allocations to high-risk assets, rather than on the sale by Strategies alone.
Over the long term, Chen expects Bitcoin’s price to stay within a defined range with a slight downward bias this week, as the market still lacks additional meaningful capital and competition for global liquidity remains intense.
“I see the $68,500 level as the key near-term resistance level, while the $62,000 level is the main support level. Unless macroeconomic conditions improve significantly, I expect Bitcoin to end the month down slightly from current levels,” Chen concluded.
$BTC